David Moyes, Jose Mourinho and luck: The trouble with judging managers Imagine, for a moment, that you are David Moyes. Eighteen months ago you were probably the highest-regarded British manager in the Premier League. For more than a decade you had stewarded a club with little going for it (apart from, obviously, its history and fan base) from minor miracle to minor miracle, consistently finishing in the top eight and outperforming better-funded rivals. Then you went to Old Trafford to succeed a legend and things didnt work out. So now you have to rebuild your reputation. (Quick aside: How idiotic is it that Moyes reputation rests on just 10 months at United and not on 11 years at Everton and four at Preston? It shouldnt, but to many it does, as googling David Moyes and rebuild his reputation shows.) So what do you do next? Moyes chose Real Sociedad and you can see his logic. They are doing far worse than their squad strength and recent history should dictate, so there is plenty of opportunity to have an impact. Its true that he has never worked outside England and doesnt really speak Spanish, but its equally true that he is a quick learner who has always looked to expand his horizons. Whether he -- and La Real -- made the right choice will be revealed soon enough. But its interesting to note just how difficult it is to evaluate a manager and his work -- to the point that there is no objective way of doing so. Think back to Jose Mourinho and a Tuesday night in March 2004 at Old Trafford. Porto had beaten Manchester United 2-1 in the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 tie. United took the lead after half an hour through Paul Scholes, who then had another goal wrongly disallowed for offside. (Not convinced? Judge for yourself.) Porto then equalized in the final minute when Tim Howard spilled Benni McCarthys free kick into the path of the onrushing Costinha. Two unusual incidents, both unexpectedly going Mourinhos way. Scholes being onside is so obvious that you can only assume its a rare error. Just as rare an error, in fact, as Howard misjudging and spilling McCarthys shot. (If you want to argue that it was too hard to hang on to, textbook keeper behaviour would have suggested parrying it wide, something that a top-drawer keeper like Howard would do 99 times out of 100.) Now imagine if those events had gone the way youd expect them to go, as if neither the assistant nor Howard made such a rare mistake. Mourinho would not have won the Champions League with Porto that season, which means that, odds are, he would not have landed at Chelsea that summer, would not have benefited from one of the greatest spending sprees in history and would not have won those two league titles that sent him on the way toward becoming the Special One. (We cant know for sure, of course. But its a fairly reasonable supposition given what we know of Chelseas mindset under Roman Abramovich at the time.) He would still have been a rising star among European club managers, with Barcelona on his résumé and two league titles with Porto plus a UEFA Cup under his belt. He likely still would have moved up to a more prestigious job; it just wouldnt have been Chelsea at that point in time. Maybe it would have been Tottenham, where he would have worked under Director of Football Frank Arnesen (they opted for Jacques Santini, instead). Or perhaps Liverpool, who ended up with Rafa Benitez. And, because Mourinho is Mourinho, he probably would have done well and turned those teams around. He might still have ended up at Inter and Real Madrid, and he might still have achieved what he achieved, but it would have taken more time. There would have been one or more intermediate steps, simply because of an assistant referees call and a goalkeepers actions. In other words, simply because of a random stroke of luck. (Oh, and its not really the kind of luck you make for yourself, either.) This doesnt mean, of course, that Mourinhos career is founded on luck. If it were, he would have been found out a long, long time ago. What it does mean is that it took two random events in his favor for him to get the Chelsea job, which, in turn, allowed him to show he is a great manager. And it shouldnt be that way. If he hadnt gotten those breaks, he would not have won the Champions League, but hed still be Mourinho. Hed still have all the qualities and experience that made him Chelseas greatest ever manager. Chelsea should still have chosen him as their next boss.
Posted on: Thu, 13 Nov 2014 06:09:16 +0000
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