Dont cry for me Ukraine Братья и сестры:) перевод моей статьи Схема Путина и ловушка для Порошенко на английский Putin’s Scheme and Trap for Poroshenko Yuriy Romanenko, Hvylya Today, the Verkhovna Rada passed Poroshenko’s bill, relative the truce in Donbas. It is bought by economic tribute to the rebellious region of Ukraine as annual contributions. This caused a surge of hysteria, which could escalate into armed conflict and rebellion. However, before the overthrow of Poroshenko let us think who benefits from it and what does it mean for Ukraine. Putins goal is to take a large piece of Ukraine on the basis of the objectives of safety and economy. What is the best way to reach it? Better to do this by our own hands, create the storylines that will be necessary to approach the final. In which way? With the conflicts that will increase tension on the political system and the economy, to ultimately cause them to collapse. Once Kiev cease to control the region, in part to involve them in its orbit. Now lets look at the practical implementation of the scheme. Through the annexation of the Crimea the shaking of south-east started. Capturing of Luhansk and Donetsk regions starts conflict on the mainland Ukraine. Power response to the separatists brought Putin nearer to the goal, since accelerated the collapse of the economic system plus the regular army had been destroying by other hands (due to money Yanukovych and families who financed separatists and Russian fool mercenaries). As more Donbas was destroyed, the higher were costs for Ukraine, and the wider became the social base of the separatists. However, the leaders of the separatists were idiots to cope with the task of Putin. After recovering from the initial shock, the Ukrainian army began to put one defeat after another. Destruction of Malaysian Boeing completely confused the card and gave odds Ukraine, which were immediately taken into advantage. By mid-August it was obvious that DNR and LNR without any direct assistance of Russia will collapse within a couple of weeks. Therefore, Putin had to bring in his troops. This increased the cost of Russia in the game with the United States and Europe, but removed from the agenda defeat of DNR-LNR that would bring even more short-term costs for Putin. In this case, the defeat of the Ukrainian army near Ilovaisk and sector B brought Putin to an intermediate goal - to achieve a truce in Donbas. It solves the problem of deepening the economic costs of Ukraine and its political liquefy. Poroshenko cannot refuse the truce, because at the start he had not any resources for the war. The losses that Ukraine suffered in the east could leave us without any Army. Approximately, for today the losses the Ukrainian army and the National Guard can be estimated at 7 thousand killed and 15-20 thousand wounded. Also, we lost about 80% of combat capable equipment. Even if you reduce the amount of losses in half, they are high and, most importantly, we have no reserves, but Putin has. Therefore, Poroshenko objectively faced the threat of a complete rout. Putin is stopped only because of the pressure from the West. The problem of Bankova lies in the fact that from the beginning they lied about the real situation, which created the illusion that we can actually win the war at this stage. As a result, Poroshenko was trapped. Rather than explain all the gravity of the situation, he continuous pretend that all is well and under control. This caused problems in society: if all is well, that is why we are losing the territory? The President can get out of this trap just by explaining the real situation. It should not repeat the mistake of Yanukovych, who did what he want, which caused a lack of understanding of society, and then led to an explosion at Maidan. Speaking objectively Poroshenko has to say that Ukraine cannot win at this level of the organization the war with Russia. Just another level of organization allows to win the war with an enemy that has more resources. However, this level of organization requires resources and we also have not it. Such resources could appear only in the case of deep reforms, when the destruction of corrupt rents gave the necessary funds and increased the populations loyalty to the regime. But this would mean the conflict Poroshenko with the elites, which he wishes to avoid. This is a mistake, because the elite’s interests still dissolve them with Poroshenko on opposite sides. Interests of the oligarchs are less dependent upon the legitimacy of Poroshenko than its dependence on the excited masses that brought him to power. Thus, the higher support Poroshenko has from people, the stronger his position in the game with the oligarchs and foreign players. On the contrary, if the support fall, raises the question whom he can to rely. To win the support for Poroshenko once more time will be difficult, probably impossible. The point, when Poroshenko could use radical measures, theoretically, still not met, although, in practice it is already very small. What will do Putin the next? Then he will support radicalized in the West of Ukraine. It will be easy to do, because most think in terms of betrayal. Through Timoshenko and other loyal players that will be explicitly or implicitly play in patriotism, Putin explicitly or implicitly starts the processes of destabilization of Western Ukraine to raise rates for Poroshenko. For Poroshenko will be difficult to answer because his resources will be concentrated in the east, and the security forces are not too loyal. When he tries to put out the fire in the west of Ukraine, then follow a new blow to the east, to expand the space of the Novorossia. Maybe it will be a combo shock. Paralyzed Poroshenko would be without resources and power, as hetman Skoropadskyi in November 1918, when Petljura began the revolt after the Germans and the Bolsheviks began their offensive from the north and east. In our position Petljura - is Timoshenko, who although lost a bit her charisma, but organizationally getting ready to play at taking power. If Poroshenko not solve the problem with security forces and will not find an economic resource for his regime in the West, the collapse will be fast, almost at once. The collapse of Poroshenko’s regime lead to the fact that we will lose more of the territories to the east and south, that Putin will submit as another escalation of the civil war in the Ukraine. In Kiev and the west of the country will start the struggle for power. The old elite will be destroyed by field commanders. Fearing that Putin will go far to the west of Ukraine, the States and Europe may go to reach agreements on bringing here the UNO’s Blue Helmets. Ukraines territory will be divided according to the principle influence over the territory means control over it. I think that relation will be 60 to 40, where a large part of the territory will join Russian Federation. Questions about the forms and perspectives guerrilla struggle was left open, as well as about the form of political regimes in the east and west of Ukraine. This variant will be implemented if Poroshenko dramatically collapses. The second option, when the Poroshenko’s regime or whoever comes in his stead in the long term 3-8 months would be a more viable chance in the event if Kiev keep the situation under the control by one way or by another. In this case, we will most certainly lose another part of the state, but much less than in the first instance. In this case, the viability of the regime will increase the support of the West, especially the United States, which will be put on the balance the economic situation and the reorganization of the army. It is more profitable scenario for Ukraine, because in this case, Putin in term of half-two years because of the sanctions and counter play from the West will get strong economic crisis, which grow into a social crisis. Most likely, it will be removed in a palace coup as Paul I was removed because of his Eurasianism, who was going to win with Napoleon in India. This game ended with the coup that brought to the power Alexander I, and for which loomed the ears of the British Empire. In the case of Putin removal, Russia will begin to fall into itself and we will have a chance to retrieve the east of Ukraine and possibly Crimea. For sure, it will depend on the alignment in the quadrangle of the Russia-China-US-EU. In any case, up to 2016-2017 for us will be a critical time, which will form a long-term perspective of Ukraine. What should Poroshenko do? If he wants to stay in power, then he needs to solve two problems: 1 It should expand its legitimacy in the eyes of the people by just reforms. 2 He has to take resources from the United States under these reforms. In any case, he should start radical reforms, otherwise all will crumble. Everything points to the fact that Poroshenko would rather not have, than will do it. It opens up huge opportunities for new political counter system forces. Giant festival of nonsense in the form of early parliamentary elections on October 26 will lead to the fact that all mainstream political parties will lose completely in the next few months. In society there is a huge demand for new faces, conceptual program, decisive action. Everybody who says that Ukraine should get rid of the Donbas, morons, hysterics, thieves and oligarchs, but also offer a real plan for victory in the war with Russia, he will win the jackpot. Ive even guess who will do it. :) But it will be a little later. In the meantime, no need to rush on the rake. The obvious solution in the form of betrayal, which today offers Putin is beneficial only for him, but not for us. Our next round, let rot the Second Ukrainian republic without too much blood. The finish should be nice and consistent.
Posted on: Wed, 17 Sep 2014 19:42:48 +0000