EBOLA. You need to focus on growth rate, not number of victims --in other words the 2nd order, not first order effect, the nonlinearity. --- [Comment: This should be familiar to people here as it is the same nonlinerity behind fragility and antifragility. Naive evidentiary methods lead people to focus on death rate (which is lower than mortality from hitting ones own furniture) and deem overreaction or even concern to be irrational. But these rates do not grow exponentially. These are the same evidentiary idiots who refused to see financial risks in 2007. Much psychologists of risks dont know probability and think people are irrational when they mix, Pinker-style, naive evidence for statistical property.]
Posted on: Fri, 17 Oct 2014 14:25:08 +0000
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