Elliott Eisenberg The World In Depression: Living With Crisis (Many articles concerning many countries have been placed below) World exports are stalling on a weak global recovery. According to data released last week by the World Trade Organization (WTO), world merchandise export volumes declined by 1.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 compared to the previous quarter on a seasonally-adjusted basis. This represents the largest quarterly decline since the Great Recession of 2008-09. Weak export demand from emerging markets (EMs) and sluggish growth in advanced economies (AEs) are the main factors behind this large decline. Unless world export growth picks up again, the global recovery is likely to falter in 2014... Global trade is a key engine of growth for the global economy. For the period 1950-2007, global trade expanded by an average 6.2 percent a year, sustaining the rapid development of export-oriented economies in Asia and Europe. More recently, world merchandise exports grew by an average 6.0 percent a year during 2000-07, leading to strong economic growth in both AEs and EMs. This came to an abrupt halt with the Great Recession of 2008-09, when world merchandise export volumes declined by a cumulative 18.0% as the world economy went into a deep recession... The decline in global trade seems to be continuing, based on the latest data from AEs. The US economy contracted by -1.0 percent in the first quarter, partly reflecting a large decline in net exports. In Europe, growth for the same period was also weak (0.2 percent) as large exporters like Germany suffered from the decline in EM export demand. Similarly, China witnessed a slowdown in growth during the same period, reflecting weak demand for Chinese products. The overall picture that emerges from these data is that the decline in global trade may continue into 2014. (1) prudentbear/2014/06/no-bubble.html... Credit is inherently unstable... I’m fond of a relatively straightforward analysis that does a decent job of illuminating the state of ongoing U.S. (marketable securities) Bubbles. From the Fed’s Z.1 “flow of funds” data, I tally Total Marketable Debt Securities (TMDS) that includes outstanding Treasury securities (not the larger Federal liabilities number), outstanding Agency (MBS & debt) Securities, corporate bonds and municipal debt securities. My calculation of TMDS began the 1990’s at $6.28 TN, or an already elevated 114% of GDP. Led by explosive growth in GSE and corporate borrowings, TMDS ended the nineties at $13.59 TN, for almost 120% growth. Over this period, GSE securities increased $2.65 TN, or 209%, to 3.916 TN. Corporate bonds jumped 185% to $4.564 TN. It is worth noting that total Business borrowings expanded 9.2% in 1997, 11.5% in 1998 and 10.4% in 1999, excess that set the stage for the inevitable bursting of the “tech” Bubble... A “funny” thing happened during the post-mortgage Bubble’s so-called “deleveraging” period. Since the end of 2008, total TMDS has jumped $8.348 TN, or 29%, to a record $37.542 TN. As a percentage of GDP, TMDS ended Q1 2014 at a record 220%. Even more importantly from a Bubble analysis perspective, in 21 quarters Total Securities (debt & equities) inflated $27.2 TN, or 61%, to end March 2014 at a record $72.039 TN. To put this in context, Total Securities began 1990 at $10.0 TN, ended 1999 at $33.0 TN and closed 2007 at a then record $53.01 TN. Amazingly, Total Securities as a percent of GDP ended Q1 at 421%. For comparison, Total Securities to GDP began the nineties at 183%, ended Bubbly 1999 at 356% before peaking at 378% in a more Bubbly 2007. No Bubble today? “Valuations in historical range”? Let’s return to “A Bubble is predicated on leverage.” Yes, Total Household Liabilities declined $715bn from the 2008 high-water mark (much of this from defaults). Yet over this period federal liabilities increased almost $10.0 TN. Corporate borrowings were up more than $2.3 TN. On system-wide basis, our system is inarguably more leveraged today than ever. (2) Doug Noland, No Bubble? hellenicshippingnews/world-exports.../ WORONCZUK: So lets talk about the recent figures that were released by the U.S. Commerce Department that showed the U.S. economy contracted by 2.9 percent in the first quarter of this year. Give us some context for this number. POLLIN: Its a massive contraction. You know, were talking about roughly a 3 percent decline in GDP growth in one quarter. That is greater than the decline that occurred in the entire recession of 2001 and in the entire recession of 1970. So this is, you know, a huge number. (3) Robert Pollin, Why Did Economy Shrink So Dramatically During the First Quarter of 2014? therealnews/t2/index.php?option=com_content... What is particularly distinctive about the current historical conjuncture is the way in which young people, particularly low-income and poor minority youth across the globe, have been increasingly denied any place in an already weakened social order and the degree to which they are no longer seen as central to how a number of countries across the globe define their future. The plight of youth as disposable populations is evident in the fact that millions of them in countries such as England, Greece, and the United States have been unemployed and denied long term benefits. The unemployment rate for young people in many countries such as Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Greece hovers between 40 and 50 per cent. To make matters worse, those with college degrees either cannot find work or are working at low-skill jobs that pay paltry wages. In the United States, young adjunct faculty constitute one of the fastest growing populations on food stamps. Suffering under huge debts, a jobs crisis, state violence, a growing surveillance state, and the prospect that they would inherit a standard of living far below that enjoyed by their parents, many young people have exhibited a rage that seems to deepen their resignation, despair, and withdrawal from the political arena. (4) Henry A. Giroux, Protesting Youth In The Age Of Neoliberal Cruelty axisoflogic/artman/publish/Article_66883.shtml (
Posted on: Sun, 29 Jun 2014 10:42:25 +0000
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