Extremely volatile situation today across Eastern and SE Iowa, Western Illinois and Northern Missouri today. We are in the bullseye for a potentially major severe outbreak if ingredients come together. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the entire LWQC area in a MODERATE Risk for the potential of 2 inch Hail, damaging winds to hurricane force (74 mph) or above, and the threat for Tornadoes. If Im seeing ingredients correctly, its possible we could have an area along the Mississippi River from a Clinton, IA to Burlington (N/S) and a Sterling/Rock Falls, Il to Cedar Rapids, IA (E/W) area be upgraded to HIGH RISK by noon today. Please note; this is what Im thinking could happen and is not official from the NWS or the SPC. Severe Thunderstorm Watch is posted from Des Moines, West to about Lincoln, NE at this time. A lot of factors will make this a definite possibility... We already have upper level shear at about 50 - 60 kts, CAPE values later today will be pushing the 3000 J/kg range and we have abundant moisture streaming up from the Gulf Coast. Plus, behind the boundary is cold high pressure that will bring those mid-70° readings for the 4th of July weekend. All we need now to get this to go will be daytime heating. Any grunge or low clouds can inhibit the daytime heating enough to negate everything severe-wise. No matter the situation, we will have abundant moisture to fire thunderstorms up and cause widespread Flash Flooding. There are some areas under Flash Flood Warnings from last nights rainfall from DBQ to the QCA. The entire area is under a flash Flood Watch For the remainder of the day. I will do all I can to keep you posted on this extremely dangerous situation. ow.ly/i/64oc6
Posted on: Mon, 30 Jun 2014 10:14:57 +0000
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