***FINAL UPDATE FOR EX- TC DYLAN*** Also brief overview on upcoming activity in the coral sea. Good morning everyone hope your Friday has started well for you and if you happened to be close to dylans landfall location that your property did not suffer too much Damage. For the rest of us especially in Townsville the Effects from tc dylan were very minimal with then the cyclone actually passing further south of the suggested landfall position last night which was singling out Alva beach/ Ayr but the system was steered in a more southerly direction than westerly as was indicated in last nights update. The GFS model had maintained constantly a crossing south of bowen and this forecast model performed extremely well in forecasting this systems landfall position maintaining this scenario even when the other models at first had a more northerly landfall location earlier on this week. The reason why this was the case is that the gfs model more accurately predicted the strength of the eventual cyclone where as the other models were a lot more conservative at first in estimating eventual dylans intensity. Well dylan is now done and a severe weather warning is now issued for that system and refer to it on this page for more information. The big talk has been these other 2 lows over the last few days. After looking at all the latest models this morning there is some suggesting of some activity occurring in the northern and gulf of carpentaria, but the models have nothing significant at this stage forming and the activity is of low resolution and very poor confidence between the models guidance. It is a situation which will be monitored but at this stage there is nothing significant and there is certainly in no way whatsoever and this needs to be emphasized to everyone out there believing this to be the case of a repeating 2011 situation where a smaller cyclone crossed the coast (TC Anthony) and then the monster (Severe TC Yasi) followed in. No forecast models suggest any westward moving system moving in from vanuatu or Fiji in any way shape or form. As mentioned any activity which MAY form in the coral sea or gulf of carpentaria will be monitored and you will be informed IF anything decides to develop out of it. For now its back to quiet times on the weather front. Hope everyone has a great Friday even if you do have to go back to work, the weekend starts this afternoon. Allan
Posted on: Thu, 30 Jan 2014 23:42:50 +0000
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