FXUS62 KFFC 040938 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 438 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING WITH THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ONE MORE DRY DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING TO OUR EAST. AN H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED AS STABILITY INDICES ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE STABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THUNDER. 17 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAYS/... GFS/ECMWF STILL IN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...BUT START TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEAKENING AND MOVING EAST AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGAN DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE YESTERDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW GA BY 00Z-06Z THU. THE ECMWF IS A TINY BIT FAST MOVING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE STATE BUT THEY BOTH SHOW IT SWEEPING THROUGH GA MAINLY DURING THE DAY THU EXITING THE SE CORNER BY 00-06Z FRI. BOTH MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT BUT THEY BOTH SHOW AN INCREASE IN PWS AND SHEAR. QPF NUMBERS STILL SHOW A QUARTER TO A THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FALLING STATE WIDE. WITH INSTABILITY SO WEAK WILL KEEP SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA FOR WED NIGHT/THU. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE STATE DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE CWA FRIDAYS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EAST COAST PUTTING THE CWA INTO NORTHWEST FLOW. BY SUNDAY BOTH MODELS SHOWS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT THEY BOTH SHOW GA ON THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT. THE GFS BRINGS JUST A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE IN ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY EXTREME NORTH GA SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE MOISTURE IN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. ONLY GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR NOW BUT WILL DEFINITELY WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS. 01 && .FIRE WEATHER... DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE TODAY AS A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION. HOWEVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN A WATCH ON DEWPOINTS...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. FOR WEDNESDAY HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXPECT ONLY HIGH CIRRUS...MOSTLY BKN-SCT. WINDS WILL BE CALM... BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AROUND 5-6 KTS...THEN BECOMING NEAR CALM THIS EVENING. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS. 17 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 71 47 71 55 / 5 5 10 40 ATLANTA 69 53 71 56 / 5 5 10 50 BLAIRSVILLE 69 41 66 50 / 5 5 20 60 CARTERSVILLE 69 45 70 54 / 5 5 20 60 COLUMBUS 71 52 75 57 / 5 5 10 30 GAINESVILLE 69 48 68 55 / 5 5 10 50 MACON 72 45 77 55 / 5 5 10 20 ROME 68 46 70 54 / 5 5 20 60 PEACHTREE CITY 69 46 71 56 / 5 5 10 40 VIDALIA 73 52 77 60 / 5 10 10 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...17
Posted on: Tue, 04 Nov 2014 09:40:49 +0000
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