FXUS62 KFFC 060001 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 701 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015 .EVENING UPDATE... CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY ON TRACK. DECIDED TO TWEAK AREA LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TONIGHT... DUE TO EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S NORTH... AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S CENTRAL. EXPECT A COMBINATION OF CAA AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT... SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. /39 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... /ISSUED AT 238 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015/ NO FCST ISSUES EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. COOL TEMPS TUES MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. ARCTIC FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WED. UNTIL THEN SEASONABLE TEMPS WARM WARM DAYS AND COOL/COLD NIGHTS. BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND USED FOR TEMPS. SNELSON .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... /ISSUED AT 238 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015/ I DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES TO THE GENERAL TRENDS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH THIS CYCLE. WEAK RE- ENFORCING FRONT TUESDAY DOES NOT AFFECT GENERAL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY DRY...FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG...MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY MEASURABLE QPF INTO NORTH GEORGIA. WE WILL LIKELY SEE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. COLDEST AIR STAYS NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT WILL ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE HAD SINCE AROUND THIS TIME LAST YEAR. SYSTEM COMING IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS A BIT HARD TO PIN DOWN. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES DO NOT INDICATE ANY DEEP...ENTRENCHED COLD AIR OVER THE REGION...BUT COOL AND DRY LOWER/MID-LEVELS HINT AT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF WINTRY MIX BY EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS AND HPC QPF ARE MINIMAL 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 12Z SUNDAY AS WELL. SEE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW... 20 PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE EXTENDED WITH STRONG TROUGH ALOFT DOMINATING MOST OF THE COUNTRY AND A VERY COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PLUNGING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND SETTLING OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH... AND HIGHS THURSDAY NOT EVEN REACHING FREEZING NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH...TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD VALUES. STILL PRETTY DARN COLD THOUGH AND ADD TO THAT THE 10-15 MPH WINDS FROM THE STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY A WARNING...THURSDAY MORNING. SOME MODERATION EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST BUT STILL BELOW-NORMAL FOR TEMPS. NEXT PRECIPITATION SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN ON THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. DEFINITELY SOME QUESTION ON TIMING OF INCOMING PRECIP VS OVERNIGHT LOWS. LAYER RH VALUES INCREASE QUITE A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS NOT SPITTING OUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. INCREASING CLOUD COVER MIGHT DEFINITELY LIMIT HOW COLD TEMPERATURES GET SATURDAY NIGHT BUT FOR NOW IT DOES LOOK LIKE A PORTION OF NORTH GEORGIA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...AND WITH THAT HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN OR SNOW TO NORTHERN ZONES GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. OF COURSE THIS WILL BE REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT POPS ARE PRETTY LOW... BARELY THERE. MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCOMING FOR SUNDAY BUT WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SURFACE TEMPS SO NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS ABOUT P-TYPE AT THIS TIME. TDP && .AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... MAYBE FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT NW WINDS WILL BACK MORE WEST ON TUE. SPEEDS 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT... 10-12KTS WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS TO 20-22KTS TUE AFTERNOON. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 30 55 31 43 / 0 0 0 5 ATLANTA 31 53 32 39 / 0 0 0 5 BLAIRSVILLE 27 47 26 33 / 0 0 0 5 CARTERSVILLE 27 50 29 37 / 0 0 0 5 COLUMBUS 32 58 33 47 / 0 0 0 0 GAINESVILLE 31 51 31 40 / 0 0 0 5 MACON 30 58 33 51 / 0 0 0 0 ROME 27 49 28 35 / 0 0 0 5 PEACHTREE CITY 28 55 31 41 / 0 0 0 5 VIDALIA 37 63 36 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SNELSON/39 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...39 daculaweather
Posted on: Tue, 06 Jan 2015 00:02:49 +0000
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