FXUS62 KFFC 190849 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 349 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS WEAK NW FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LATE TODAY. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BUT LITTLE IMPACT TO THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AND AS A RESULT...WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE TO THE CWA TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...WILL STILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW WITH SIMILAR HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR A BLEND WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. 11 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND A MAINLY DRY SURFACE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TO START THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED COMES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG WAVE PUSHES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE SPREADING OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF IT...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A DANCE AROUND TIMING OF INCOMING MOISTURE VERSUS LOW TEMPERATURES. GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE METRO...WHEREAS THE LOW TEMPS THAT MIGHT BE SUPPORTIVE OF FROZEN PRECIP WOULD MAINLY BE NORTH. EVEN THEN... MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA HOVERS AROUND FREEZING FOR A LOW FRIDAY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHICH COULD DIP A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER THAN THAT. FOR NOW... THINKING A PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z-15Z FRIDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR ANY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL FROZEN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF METRO...IF ANYTHING MANAGES TO REACH THE GROUND...AS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE HARD-PRESSED TO HAVE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR PRECIP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE METRO. HAVE KEPT TREND OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX. SOUTH OF THE METRO...ALL LIQUID IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND PULLS MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE ECMWF LINGERS IT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. TOOK A COMPROMISE WITH THAT OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT WHERE ANY PRECIP LINGERS SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR P-TYPE CONCERNS. INTO THE WEEKEND...GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH DOMINATING THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND /AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL/. ENOUGH OF A HINT AT A CLIPPER OF SOME SORT AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS EXTREME NORTH. TDP && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND WILL PERSIST GENERALLY IN THE AREA FROM ATL TO AHN. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS. 11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 64 39 63 42 / 0 0 5 0 ATLANTA 63 41 62 43 / 0 0 5 0 BLAIRSVILLE 58 35 58 39 / 0 0 5 5 CARTERSVILLE 62 36 63 40 / 0 0 5 0 COLUMBUS 65 39 67 44 / 0 0 5 0 GAINESVILLE 59 39 60 42 / 0 0 5 0 MACON 65 37 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 ROME 61 35 63 39 / 0 0 5 0 PEACHTREE CITY 64 35 64 40 / 0 0 5 0 VIDALIA 68 41 68 45 / 0 0 5 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....TDP AVIATION...11 daculaweather
Posted on: Mon, 19 Jan 2015 08:49:56 +0000
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