FXUS62 KMLB 011341 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 941 AM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013 .DISCUSSION... TODAY...WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH SUBTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AFFECTS THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THE MOST TODAY. YESTERDAY THERE WAS A SLIGHT WARMING AT 700MB WHICH LED TO SUBDUED CONVECTION UNTIL STRONGER LATE DAY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. THE UPSTREAM MORNING SOUNDING AT TAMPA SHOWS IT REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.84 INCHES. HOWEVER THE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT HAS SOME DRYING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE GFS LIFTS THIS INTO OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THE MODEL PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHES CONVECTION UNTIL THE LATE DAY EAST/WEST BOUNDARY COLLISION. THOUGH THE GFS STARTS OUT A LITTLE TOO DRY DOWN SOUTH...A 700 MB TEMP AROUND 9 CELSIUS ON THE MIAMI MORNING SOUNDING POINTS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BEING NOT TOO RAPID...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS POPS AT 40 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA... WHICH IS DOUBLE THE MOS VALUES. DO NOT ANTICIPATE QUICK CONVECTIVE INITIATION TODAY...SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST. WITH SOUTHWEST LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW THOUGH...THE HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE ACROSS INTERIOR/EAST SECTIONS. EVEN THOUGH OUR LOCAL WRF GENERATES MUCH LESS PRECIP THAT YESTERDAY AND THE GFS CONFINES CHANCES TO LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY IN THE EVENING...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH EVIDENCE OR CONFIDENCE TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE POPS. THE TAMPA SOUNDING SHOWED A DRY LAYER AT 700 MB AND WITH QUITE MOIST LOW LEVELS...THE RESULTING MICROBURST DAY PREDICTION INDEX POINTS TO A GREATER THAN NORMAL CHANCE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS IS ALREADY ADDRESSED IN THE HWO. && .AVIATION...DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS DELINEATED SCENARIO. MAINLY VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO ONSHORE BETWEEN 16Z-18Z AT COASTAL TERMINALS...PERHAPS A TAD LATER AT DAB. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND COLLIDE WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE EASTERN HALF BETWEEN 21Z-23Z. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VCTS AT TERMINALS WITH VARIOUS START TIMES UNTIL A TEMPO WINDOW CAN BE DETERMINED WITH MORE CONFIDENCE. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KNOTS. && .MARINE... TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...SO BOATING CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST LOOK GOOD THIS MORNING. MARINERS WILL NEED TO KEEP ALERT FOR STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS MIGHT BE FARTHER INLAND...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...FROM SOUTH OF THE CAPE TO TREASURE COAST. HOWEVER... OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING BACK TO THE COAST COULD STILL OCCUR. FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD...A FEW STORMS COULD PUSH ACROSS THE COASTLINE. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ FORECASTS...LASCODY IMPACT WX...MOSES PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sun, 01 Sep 2013 13:41:46 +0000
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