FXUS62 KMLB 050836 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 336 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014 .DISCUSSION... ...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY-THURSDAY... CURRENT...PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUD CONCERNS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MANY OF THESE AREAS MAY STAY SOCKED IN PAST MID MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY BURNING OFF. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND THE LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS MAINLY BELOW 10 MPH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S WHEREAS READINGS IN THE 60S DOMINATE SOUTHWARD FROM THIS FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MORNING. TODAY-TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO 1.40-1.50. WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AREAWIDE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST DUE TO MORE SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS HERE LATER IN THE DAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE GREATEST CHANCE TO SEE SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND PERHAPS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND...THICKER NORTHWARD...AFTERNOON HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT TRICKY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MIDDLE 70S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTHWARD FROM THE ORLANDO METRO. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE OVER NORMALLY COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. MIDDLE 60S MAY BE REALIZED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS FEATURE. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY LATE OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INDUCING THE SURFACE LOW TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. EXPECT CONVECTION IN TURN TO DEVELOP OVER THE GOMEX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH GREATEST THREAT MAY VERY WELL BE EARLY THIS EVENING FROM ONGOING EARLIER SHOWERS. SHOWER CHANCES MAY ALSO BE GREATER THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE GULF SYSTEM WITH MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION FROM IT REMAINING WEST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH SUNRISE THU MORNING. THU-THU NIGHT... VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF WILL MOVE TO...OR REDEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THU NIGHT. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE SYSTEMS IN OUR COOL SEASON...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS UNCERTAIN. CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM APPROACHING CONVECTION IN THE GULF. STILL...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER-MID 80S SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH. HOW MUCH AND HOW FAST THE LOW DEEPENS IS KEY TO THE STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL WINDS. THE 00Z GFS INDICATED 850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 30-35 KNOTS BY EVENING WHEN A BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY. WHILE THIS IS BELOW THE THRESHOLD WE USUALLY LOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ANY QUICKER STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW (LIKE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS) WOULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR AND BRING A SEVERE THREAT...MAINLY FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THU. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SOUTH HALF WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE. MOS POPS ARE IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE AND WITH THE LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DIFFER MUCH FROM THOSE HIGH VALUES. PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY EVENING BUT PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN QUITE HIGH POPS INTO THU EVENING. FRI... LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND LOWER THETA E AIR WILL ADVECT IN. THOUGH WE USUALLY STAY DRY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THESE LOWS...A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND OFF THE GULF MAY REACH NORTHERN SECTIONS. WEEKEND-NEXT WED...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING IN WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SAT MORNING BUT OTHERWISE READINGS LOOK AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL COMMENCE. THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND GRADUALLY DAMPENING OUT WED AS IT NEARS THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. WITH MOS POPS 20-30 PERCENT...WILL MENTION SMALL RAIN CHANCES FOR TUE NIGHT-WED. && .AVIATION...STRATUS/PATCHY FOG (LIFR/IFR CIGS) TO REMAIN THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN THRU THE MORNING. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LINGER OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND LONGEST NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AND MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING TO BURN OFF. EVEN THEN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING GULF LOW. THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WDLY SCT AFTN SHOWERS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER ECFL WITH MAIN THREAT FOR AN ISOLD STORM ALONG THE TREASURE COAST OR OKEECHOBEE COUNTY LATER IN THE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER NORTHWARD MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR STORMS HERE. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SURROUNDING ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS SOUTHWARD. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN TRICKY IN THAT NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF IT. WIND SPEEDS FORECAST MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD... THOUGH EARLY ON WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEGS MAY BE 10-15 KTS DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER GRADIENT FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF. A MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD. STUBBORN LONG PERIOD SWELL HAS SEAS UP TO 6 FT AT BUOY 41009 EARLY THIS MORNING...THUS FORCING MY HAND TO GO WITH CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS FOR 5-6 FT SEAS THIS MORNING FOR OFFSHORE LEGS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. WILL ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS RE-ANALYZE POTENTIALLY DROPPING CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS BY LATE MORNING COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUANCE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SEAS 3-5 FEET NEAR SHORE. WILL KEEP SEAS 3-5 FT GOING INTO TONIGHT...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL AGAIN NEED TO DETERMINE IF 6 FT SEAS ENTER THE PICTURE WELL OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF THE CAPE. THE AFOREMENTIONED LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OUTGOING TIDE. OFFSHORE MOVING SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA A POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. THOUGH NOT IN THE FORECAST JUST YET...AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS AS WELL. THU-WEEKEND...APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ON THU WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY AND IN THE EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW ON FRI WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH ON SAT SHOULD PRODUCE IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS...EXCEPT MAYBE FOR SOME 15-20 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE NORTH WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS ON SUNDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 63 76 62 / 40 50 80 60 MCO 80 62 80 63 / 30 40 70 60 MLB 78 65 81 68 / 30 40 70 50 VRB 81 62 82 68 / 30 30 60 50 LEE 77 61 77 61 / 30 50 80 60 SFB 77 63 79 64 / 30 50 80 60 ORL 79 63 79 64 / 30 50 70 60 FPR 81 62 82 69 / 30 30 60 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK LONG TERM....LASCODY PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Wed, 05 Mar 2014 08:36:58 +0000
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