FXUS62 KMLB 070813 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 413 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013 .DISCUSSION... TODAY-TONIGHT...CIRCULATION CENTER OF T.S. ANDREA LIFTING UP THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER THE ERN GOMEX IN HER WAKE. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK MID LVL VORTICITY... SINKING MID LVL OMEGA VALUES...AND AN UPR LVL AIRMASS THAT IS LARGELY CONVERGENT. LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS RESPECTABLE WITH H100-H85 VALUES AOA 60PCT...BUT DIMINISHES TO BLO 50PCT THRU THE H85-H50 LYR. THE 00Z RAOBS DEPICT THIS WELL WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING FROM 2.2" AT KJAX TO 1.6" AT KTBW. EARLY MORNING RADAR/SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN CONVERGENCE LINE OF SHRAS PUSHING INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION...SUGGESTING HIGHER MOISTURE AND BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER THE SRN CWA. NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON AOB 20PCT POPS N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS ADVERTISED BY THE 07/00Z GFS MOS OUTPUT...MODEL INDICATES STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES THAT ALLOW CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB ABV THE 2000 J/KG MARK OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. DEFINITELY WILL SEE BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE SRN COUNTIES DUE TO THE MOISTURE PROFILE... BUT WILL KEEP ALL AREAS IN THE SCT CATEGORY. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY AS ANDREA LIFTS OUT OF THE LCL SPHERE OF INFLUENCE BUT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...OR AT LEAST DELAY IT THRU LATE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE L90S AREAWIDE...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE L70S AREAWIDE WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S. SAT-SUN... DRY SLOT IN WAKE OF TC ANDREA IS ADVERTISED TO QUICKLY FILL WITH HIGHER MOISTURE DURING SAT. BACKED FLOW TO THE SOUTH ASCD WITH ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHING NEAR THE AREA WILL HELP MOISTURE ADVECTION. FAVORABLE S-SW STEERING LEVEL WINDS COUPLED WITH FORMATION OF SEA BREEZE AND OTHER SFC BOUNDARIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON WL LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE EVENING AND WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST AN HALF INCH TO INCH PCPN OVER A GOOD NUMBER OF AREAS BY SAT EVENING. DURING SUN RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE AREA. THIS WL PRODUCE A TREND TOWARD INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND THUS CONCENTRATE HIGHER POP POTENTIAL INLAND. LIGHT EASTERLY-SE FLOW ALOFT WL NOT PRECLUDE ANY AREAS HOWEVER FROM A STORM MENTION. RAIN COVERAGE (SCATTERED) SHOULD BE LESS OVERALL THAN SATURDAY. NEXT WEEK...RAIN CHCS LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONAL INTO AT LEAST TUE/WED DUE TO SUITABLE MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. MAP FEATURES OVER THE CONUS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING EWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASCD BROAD TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY WED. SOME LOCAL DRYING IS SHOWN PAST MIDWEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO CLOSE OUT WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL POP DUE TO SOME DRYING. && .AVIATION... THRU 07/14Z...SWRLY WIND SHEAR 20-25KTS BLO FL015...TEMPO MVFR CIGS BTWN FL015-025. BTWN 07/14Z-07/18Z...VFR ALL SITES...SW SFC WND G18-22KTS CONTG THRU 07/22Z. BTWN 07/18Z-07/22Z...PROB30 IFR TSRAS N OF KTIX-KISM...VCTS KMLB/KVRB...SCT IFR TSRAS S OF KVRB-KOBE. AFT 22Z...BCMG VFR ALL SITES. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...LATEST OBS FROM BUOYS 009/012 INDICATE SCA CONDITIONS STILL PRESENT N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...THOUGH S/SW WINDS AT 009 WERE BORDERLINE. EVEN SO...THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT IS GENERATING VERY ROUGH WIND WAVES WITH HEIGHTS BTWN 5-6FT...DOMINANT PDS ARND 5SEC. WILL KEEP THE SCA IN PLACE THRU THE NEXT FCST CYCLE. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF T.S. ANDREA PRODUCES A MODERATE TO FRESH OFFSHORE BREEZE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER MOVES OUT OF THE LCL SPHERE OF INFLUENCE...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO AOB 12KTS. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT OFFSHORE. NEXT WEEK...PROXIMITY OF HIGH PRESSURE WL ALLOW FOR MORE FAVORABLE WIND AND SEA STATE EARLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEA HGHTS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE WITH HIGHER SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND GENERALLY A PRIMARILY LOCAL WIND WAVE COMPONENT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AT TIMES EXTENDING WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS/SEAS HIGHER NEAR STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 74 87 72 / 30 20 60 40 MCO 92 74 89 72 / 30 20 70 40 MLB 89 74 87 73 / 50 30 70 40 VRB 90 74 87 73 / 50 40 70 40 LEE 91 73 90 73 / 30 20 60 40 SFB 93 74 90 73 / 30 20 60 40 ORL 92 74 89 74 / 30 20 70 40 FPR 90 75 87 73 / 50 40 70 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BRAGAW LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Fri, 07 Jun 2013 08:13:51 +0000
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