FXUS62 KMLB 110813 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 413 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013 .DISCUSSION... ...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS NEXT FEW DAYS... ...HOT TODAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES... TODAY...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (595 DM) IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER...PRODUCING A LARGE AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. THIS WILL SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES BELOW 10 PERCENT...VERY UNUSUAL FOR AUGUST. GFS PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST 1.25 INCHES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL SEND MAX TEMPS TO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT RECORD SETTING. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH 100-102 DEGREES WHICH IS QUITE TYPICAL FOR FL IN AUGUST. BUT THERE WILL BE NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE FORM OF RAIN/STORMS OR EVEN MUCH CLOUDINESS. MAX TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WILL HOLD NEAR 90 AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BY NOON. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH IS PRODUCING SOME BANDS OF MARINE STRATOCU ALIGNING WITH THE SE FLOW AND IMPINGING ON PORTIONS OF THE COAST. THIS CLOUDINESS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. MON-WED...DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. ONSHORE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER SUPPRESSION PROVIDED BY THE RIDGE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR MON. THEN POPS INCREASE TO AROUND 20/30 PERCENT TUES AND WED WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING INLAND. LOWER AFT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL KEEP HOTTER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE SEA BREEZE KEEPING TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO AROUND 90 DEGREES DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THU-SAT...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND PUSHES AXIS OF DEEP LAYER RIDGE SOUTHWARD. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE S/SW AND RAPIDLY PULL DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND LOW 90S INLAND. && .AVIATION... OCNL MVFR CIGS AT MLB/VRB/FPR...AND LIGHT MIST POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...UP TO 14 KNOTS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE FROM MLB SOUTHWARD. IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE ARE INDEED HIGH CLOUDS...NEAR 200 MB OR 40,000 FT! && .MARINE... TODAY...ATLC RIDGE AXIS IS SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT REMAIN SE AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. AN EASTERLY SEA BREEZE OF 10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. AFTER SUNSET...THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL DIMINISH AND THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET COMPOSED OF A 2 FT EAST SWELL AND A 1 FOOT WIND CHOP. MON-THU...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE E/SE TO S/SE. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2-3 FEET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 MCO 95 73 94 75 / 10 10 10 10 MLB 90 73 89 76 / 10 10 10 10 VRB 90 72 90 74 / 10 10 10 10 LEE 95 76 95 76 / 10 10 20 10 SFB 95 75 94 75 / 10 10 10 10 ORL 95 75 94 75 / 10 10 10 10 FPR 89 73 89 74 / 10 10 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KELLY LONG TERM....WEITLICH PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sun, 11 Aug 2013 08:13:51 +0000