FXUS62 KMLB 131451 AAA AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1050 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014 .DISCUSSION... MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS A MOSTLY DRY AIR MASS EXCEPT FOR A LAYER OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 AND 950 MB (ROUGHLY 2500 TO 4500 FT). THINK THE SOUNDING WENT THROUGH A CLOUD AT THIS LEVEL CAUSING SOME CONTAMINATION OF THE T/TD TRACE. BUT SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO COMBINE WITH THIS MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE SOUNDING AS WELL AS CAPE WIND TOWERS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE E/SE FLOW AS REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SO THERE WILL BE A STRONGER BREEZE ESP NEAR THE COAST. THE INCREASED FLOW OVER THE ATLC SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE CONVERGENT CLOUD LINES WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO REACH THE COAST. STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY AND WILL DRAW A SILENT 10 POP FOR THE COAST. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION... VFR. SPOTTY CIGS 030-040AGL IN DEVELOPING CU FIELD AS WELL AS SC STREAMERS. && .MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. TIGHTENING PGRAD HAS PUSHED WINDS UP TO 15KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 4FT NEAR SHORE AND 5FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER WELL OFFSHORE. THE TREND OF AN INCREASING WIND CHOP SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT H24...WITH 4-6FT SEAS AND WINDS A LITTLE BELOW 20KT. WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE CAUTION FOR ALL THE WATERS GIVEN THE POOR CONDITIONS AND THAT 6FT SEAS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON...ALTHOUGH THE NEAR SHORE VOLUSIA WATERS MAY BE JUST BELOW THRESHOLD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 75 89 75 / 0 10 60 60 MCO 89 72 90 73 / 0 10 60 50 MLB 88 77 88 75 / 0 20 50 40 VRB 88 77 88 75 / 0 20 40 40 LEE 89 71 89 73 / 0 10 60 60 SFB 89 72 90 73 / 0 10 60 60 ORL 89 72 89 74 / 0 10 60 60 FPR 87 77 88 75 / 10 20 40 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ KELLY/WEITLICH PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 14:51:33 +0000
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