FXUS62 KMLB 140845 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 345 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015 .DISCUSSION... ...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY... CURRENTLY-TODAY...EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS WAS COVERING THE AREA BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CANAVERAL PROFILERS WERE SHOWING NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. NEVERTHELESS... COASTAL SITES HAVE HAD A PERIOD OF FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WERE INCREASING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMED EAST OF THE WATERS. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT COOL AIR ADVECTION AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE CONSIDERABLE MORNING STRATUS...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW YESTERDAYS. MAV TEMPS WERE TOO WARM AND HAVE GONE CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS VALUES...MOSTLY UPPER 60S FAR NORTH AND MID 70S CENTRAL/SOUTH. MOS HAS 15-20 PERCENT POPS ALONG THE COAST SO WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THERE. HOWEVER...THINK THAT THE CURRENT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF STREAM IN NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...POINT TO CONFINING THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE SOUTH COAST. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE A SUBTLE DECREASE IN NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. MAV GUIDANCE IS NOT AS COOL/DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THEREFORE...THINK THAT CONSIDERABLE LOW STRATUS WILL FORM AGAIN AND CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN DUE TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW. THU-FRI...THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ACROSS FL AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THU NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE N/NW WHILE WINDS FARTHER ALOFT REMAIN OUT OF THE W/SW INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH APPROACHING S/W AND JET INDUCED DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES LATE THU AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THU NIGHT. THEN AS TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD DOWN THE PENINSULA INTO FRI. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECTING A COOLER AIR MASS INTO FL WILL HOLD THU HIGHS TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ORLANDO NORTH AND THE LOW/MID 70S SOUTH. CONTINUED DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON FRI WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE FRI . SAT-TUE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY STRETCHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO FRI. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SAT AND CONTINUES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SAT. EASTERLY WINDS MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S SAT AND SUN. MINIMAL POP SAT THRU MON. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. THE COOLER NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW HOLDS MON HIGHS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST TO EAST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHIFTING TO THE EAST TUE. THE ONSHORE FLOW HELPS TO PUSH TUE HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 70S AREAWIDE. THE ONSHORE FLOW TUE PRODUCES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MARINE SHOWERS COMING ASHORE AND WORKING THEIR WAY PAST INTERSTATE 95 BEFORE DISSIPATING. && .AVIATION... EXTENSIVE IFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LIFR LOOK TO BE ENTRENCHED PAST SUNRISE...PROBABLY UNTIL 14-15Z...THEN A GRADUAL LIFTING TO MVFR-IFR WILL OCCUR. BOUNDARY LAYER NORTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS HAVE KEPT MIST/FOG CONFINED TO THE COAST WHERE IT IS JUST A LITTLE MORE MOIST. MOST TERMINALS CAN AGAIN EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AFTER 06Z THU. SLIGHT DRYING SHOULD INHIBIT DENSE FOG THOUGH. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...NORTHERLY WIND SURGE WILL CAUSE POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD AND IN THE GULF STREAM...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. THE ADJACENT CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS WILL BE MORE BORDERLINE AND INSTEAD WILL CARRY EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT NEAR SHORE. THE WIND SURGE IS NOT FORECAST TO QUITE REACH THE SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS BUT WILL MENTION EXERCISE CAUTION THERE TOO. COASTAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND BEACH CAMS SHOW THAT VISIBILITY HAS GRADUALLY IMPROVED SO WILL CANCEL DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. THU-FRI...NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THU INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 NEARSHORE/15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE FRI AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE. SAT-SUN...WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT FRI AND REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST SAT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 67 52 66 48 / 20 10 30 50 MCO 72 53 68 50 / 10 10 30 40 MLB 74 58 71 55 / 20 10 20 30 VRB 75 59 72 56 / 20 10 20 30 LEE 69 50 65 47 / 10 10 40 40 SFB 70 52 67 49 / 10 10 30 40 ORL 71 53 67 50 / 10 10 30 40 FPR 76 60 73 56 / 20 10 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LASCODY LONG TERM....WIMMER PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Wed, 14 Jan 2015 08:45:48 +0000