FXUS62 KMLB 211330 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL - TopicsExpress

FXUS62 KMLB 211330 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 930 AM EDT FRI JUN 21 2013 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE TROUGHING NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST AND IS REPLACED BY TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE FIRST WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE SECOND WILL BUILD FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH HELP FROM THE DAILY SEA BREEZES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER LAYERS WARM UP AND BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE. STORMS SHOULD START FORMING MID AND LATE AFTERNOON EAST TO WEST AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. CURRENT AFTERNOON FORECAST DESCRIBES THIS SCENARIO WELL BUT WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO DO SOME HOUSEKEEPING ON THE WORDING AND TRENDS. AVIATION...AFTERNOON IFR WITH VCTS BEST CALL FOR THE COASTAL TAF SITES. TEMPO 19Z-24Z MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AND VICINITY OF LIGHTNING STORMS WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 4. MARINE...EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BUOYS WERE RECORDING CALM TO LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS PER LAST HOURLIES SWAN LOOKS TO STILL HAVE OVERESTIMATED WAVE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT OR TWO WHEN COMPARING TO BUOY REPORTS. LIMITED WAVE HEIGHTS TO AROUND 3 FEET FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND BUT HELPING TO KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EC FL FOR ANOTHER DAY. SELY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF WITH BEST BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCURRING LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF EC FL. HAVE DISTRIBUTED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS (60) ROUGHLY NEAR/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4...AND SCATTERED OVER THE REMAINDER OF EC FL. ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESP NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE THE TREASURE COAST LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WAVE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY REACHING LOWER 90S INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 COAST. OVERNIGHT MINS MID 70S...A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST. SAT-SUN...BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TROPICAL WAVE BECOMING SHEARED AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE E/SE AND THE TIMING APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED. THE LEAD VORT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH FL SAT WHILE THE MAIN VORT HANGS BACK AND LIFTS NW OR W/NW TOWARD THE SE US COAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEPER E/SE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGE ASSERTS ITSELF WHICH WILL FOCUS STORMS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE FL PENINSULA EACH AFTN/EVE. SO THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK AS WET AS IT DID EARLIER THOUGH STILL EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS. WILL LOWER POPS BACK TO 30-40 PERCENT SAT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST. WILL SHOW A LITTLE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY (40 TO 50 PERCENT) WHEN THE SHEARED AXIS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA. TEMPS FORECAST TO BE QUITE AVERAGE DURING THE DAY WITH LOWER 90S INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S COAST...BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. MON-THU...RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE SE AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP EC FL IN A GENERAL SE FLOW. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENT FL BY THU AND PRODUCE A VEERING OF THE SFC WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. INFLUENCE OF RIDGE ALOFT MAY ACT TO NUDGE MAX TEMPS UP A TAD AND DECREASE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL IN THE 30/40 PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 COAST. && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WITH HIGHEST SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE NORTH OF KISM-KTIX LINE. ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN MOST AREAS BY 22/02Z. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS S-SE 10-12KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT...UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. 00Z SWAN SEA HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LOOK ABOUT A FOOT HIGH MUCH OF THE AREA SO WILL UNDERCUT ACCORDINGLY. SAT-TUE...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE EAST THIS WEEKEND AND MAY INCREASE SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ESP SUNDAY. E/SE FLOW 10-15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE AT TIMES AROUND 15 KNOTS AT NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ FORECASTS...WIMMER IMPACT WX...MOSES PALMBAYWEATHER.info

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