FXUS62 KMLB 250810 AAA AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 410 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .DISCUSSION... TODAY AND TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL STATIONARY BUT STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS ENCOUNTERING HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE MID ATLC SEABOARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO A NOTABLE INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS TRUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NE FL COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGH NIGHTFALL. GUSTY CONDITIONS WL UNFOLD SWD ACROSS THE SPACE AND TREASURE CST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE COAST AND INLAND. SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS WL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL INLAND THROUGH THE DAY...LEADING TO BRIEF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINS IN AFFECTED AREAS. SFC HEATING WL LEAD TO A FEW STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAIN AREAS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...HOWEVER PCPN WL OCCUR MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS. THE STRONG MARINE COMPONENT WL LEAD TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...ESP AT THE COAST WHERE GUSTY CONDS AND CHOPPY BREAKING WAVES WL CONTINUE ALONG THE BEACHES WELL INTO THE NIGHT. TC CRISTOBAL SHOULD RESUME A SLOW NORTHWARD TREK LATER TODAY. TUE-WED... AN UNUSUALLY DRY WX PATTERN FOR LATE SUMMER THRU MIDWEEK AS T.S. CRISTOBAL RIDES UP THE FRONT SIDE OF A LARGE H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DRAWN N BY A TROF EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE SRN BAHAMAS... CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO LIFT DUE NORTH FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION AND PASS WELL E OF THE NRN BAHAMAS...POSING NO DIRECT THREAT TO THE FL PENINSULA OUTSIDE OF MARINE IMPACTS. INTERACTION BTWN THE CRISTOBAL AND THE ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG NE FLOW THAT CURRENTLY SPANS THE ENTIRE ERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL PUSH THE BACKDOOR FRONT FROM CENTRAL FL INTO THE FL STRAITS BY DAYBREAK TUE WITH STRONG THERMAL RIDGING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...ALREADY WEAK WITH H70 TEMPS ARND 11C AND H50 TEMPS ARND -4C...WILL BECOME QUITE HOSTILE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS THE NE FLOW PUSHES H50 TEMPS AS WARM AS -2C INTO CENTRAL FL WITH H85-H50 LAPSE RATES FALLING BLO 4C/KM. AS CRISTOBAL RACES INTO THE OPEN ATLC ON WED...THE DEEP NE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE E AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE DRY/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN SLGT CHC POPS THRU MIDWEEK. MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M90S AS THE DRY/SUPPRESSED AIR LIMITS CLOUD COVER AND COOLING PRECIP. MIN TEMPS M/U70S AS WEAKENING ERLY FLOW PUSHES OCEAN MODIFIED AIR ONSHORE. THU-SUN... SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE PAC NW WILL DEEPEN AS A STRONG 120KT H25 PUSHES INTO W CANADA. AS THIS TROF PUSHES E...IT WILL NUDGE THE DEEP SOUTH HIGH PRES RIDGE OFFSHORE WHERE IT WILL REINFORCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE SEASONAL E/SE FLOW TO DVLP ACRS THE FL PENINSULA INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE BAND FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE N AS A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT WHILE THE MID LVL THERMAL RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN. THE DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MODIFY...KEEPING POPS BLO CLIMO THRU THU. HOWEVER...EVENTUALLY A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WX PATTERN WILL RETURN AS THE DLVPG E/SERLY FLOW PUSHES DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL FL. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG... MAXES IN THE L90S...MIN IN THE L/M70S. && .AVIATION... SCT SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE WL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS CIGS NR FL030-040 WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY 1-2SM AND CIGS AOB FL015 MNLY ALONG THE CST DURING TODAY. SFC WND G25 TO 30KT WL OCCUR ALONG THE CST AND WITHIN SHOWERS AT TIMES. && .MARINE... TODAY AND TONIGHT...ADVISORY CONDS INITIALLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS MORNING WL SPREAD SWD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA AFT 10 AM. STRONG WINDS 20 TO 30 KT N OR CAPE CANAVERAL AND AROUND 10 TO 25 KTS SOUTH OF THE CAPE AFTER MID DAY WL PRODUCE BUILDING SEAS AREAWIDE WITH 7 TO 9 FT SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND CHOPPY SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM. TUE-TUE NIGHT... POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THRU MIDWEEK AS SWELLS FROM T.C. CRISTOBAL IMPACT THE LCL ATLC. CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLOWLY AS IT LIFTS E OF THE BAHAMA BANK...REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA LATE WED NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE LCL ATLC...A TIGHT PGRAD WILL PERSIST AS CRISTOBAL RIDES UP THE FRONT SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. A LONG NE FETCH SPANS THE ENTIRE ERN SEABOARD THAT WILL PUSH A LARGE SWELL INTO THE LCL ATLC... ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-7FT NEARSHORE AND 8-10FT OFFSHORE AS NE WINDS FRESHEN TO 15-20KTS. WED/WED NIGHT... CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE T.C. RACES INTO THE OPEN ATLC. NE WINDS BCMG E AND DIMINISHING TO ARND 10KTS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IN CRISTOBAL WAKE. DIMINISHING SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN 4-6FT SEAS NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE THRU MIDDAY... BUT THESE SHOULD DROP BLO SCA CRITERIA BY SUNSET. THU-FRI... RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE AND REINFORCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS...ALLOWING A LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE TO RETURN TO THE LCL ATLC. LINGERING T.C. SWELLS WILL DAMPEN OUT THRU THE DAY THU...ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 78 89 75 / 40 20 20 20 MCO 92 75 92 75 / 40 20 20 10 MLB 90 78 89 77 / 40 20 20 20 VRB 90 78 90 77 / 50 20 20 20 LEE 92 75 92 73 / 40 20 20 10 SFB 92 75 92 75 / 40 20 20 10 ORL 91 77 92 75 / 40 20 20 10 FPR 88 77 90 77 / 50 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST LONG TERM....BRAGAW PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Mon, 25 Aug 2014 08:10:49 +0000
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