FXUS62 KMLB 270744 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 330 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013 .DISCUSSION... TODAY/TONIGHT...MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE EAST OF FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN U.S. COASTLINE. ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH 925 MB WINDS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. THIS SURGE IN WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE CONVERGENCE INDUCED SHOWERS THAT WILL INITIALLY IMPACT THIS COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER GREATEST COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOWARD THE COAST WITH RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT...DECREASING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FARTHER INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AND MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S INLAND. TEMPS WILL FALL AS LOW AS THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT WITH ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. SAT-MON...GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCAL WX PATTERN FOR DAYS 2-4. HIGH AMPLITUDE WRN ATLC H50 TROUGH WILL CUTOFF INTO A LOW...WHICH WILL MEANDER OFFSHORE THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TIGHT PGRAD BETWEEN AN ERN CONUS SURFACE HIGH AND A LOW PRES CENTER NE OF THE BAHAMAS WILL PRODUCE STOUT NE FLOW THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL RELAX AND PGRAD LOOSENS SUN-MON AS THE WRN ATLC LOW LIFTS NE AND NORTH WHILE THE HIGH TO ITS N/W WEAKENS. SLACKENING ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH DECREASE IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL SPELL LOWER RAIN CHANCES BY MON AFTER WEEKEND POPS AVERAGE 20-30 INLAND AND 30 ALONG THE COAST. SATURDAY LOOKS "BREEZY" AREAWIDE EVEN BORDERLINE "WINDY" (SUSTAINED ~20 MPH) ALONG COASTAL VOLUSIA/BREVARD COS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD LOOK CLOSE TO CLIMO...MINS A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG THE COAST OWING TO ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LATE SEPTEMBER SURF/OCEAN TEMPS. TUE-FRI...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECM IN THE XTD RANGE...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH EITHER MODEL VERIFIES WILL HAVE BIG TIME REPERCUSSIONS ON MID-LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES. BOTH MODELS BRING IN MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO DEVELOP A TROUGH OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE ECM HAS A WEAKER/MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED H50 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX WITH STRONGER DOWNSTREAM WRN ATLC RIDGING. THIS RESULTS IN THE MODEL BRINGING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE ERN GOMEX. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/MORE POS TILT MID/UPPER TROUGH AND AS A RESULT HAS ITS INVERTED TROUGH MOVE MORE NWD TO A POSITION FROM CUBA TO JUST OFFSHORE SE FL BY LATE WEEK. THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS MORE ON THE SIDE OF THE GFS...HOWEVER MID LATE WEEK POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP HIGHER MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE. WOULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT REVISIONS TO THE FCST IF THE GFS TRENDS TOWARD THE MUCH WETTER ECM. && .AVIATION...AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS WILL BREAK UP INTO LATE MORNING WITH MAIN REDUCTIONS IN VIS/CIGS OCCURRING WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE AND TRANSITIONING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. GREATEST SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. && .MARINE... TODAY/TONIGHT...ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 6-7 FEET TODAY AND UP TO 7-8 FEET TONIGHT. SAT-TUE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE PGRAD SLOWLY RELAXES. THIS WILL BRING GRADUAL SUBSIDING IN WINDS AND SEAS FROM SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY (5-6FT) THROUGHOUT THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...DOWN TO 2-4FT BY MON/NIGHT TUE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 84 73 86 71 / 30 30 30 30 MCO 88 70 89 69 / 20 20 20 10 MLB 85 76 86 74 / 30 30 30 20 VRB 85 72 87 72 / 30 30 30 20 LEE 87 69 88 69 / 20 20 20 10 SFB 86 69 88 70 / 30 20 20 10 ORL 87 70 88 71 / 20 20 20 10 FPR 86 71 86 72 / 30 30 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WEITLICH LONG TERM....CRISTALDI AVIATION...WEITLICH PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Fri, 27 Sep 2013 07:44:41 +0000
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