FXUS62 KMLB 291409 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 909 AM EST FRI NOV 29 2013 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY-TODAY... EVEN THOUGH THE EAST COAST PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTED ABOUT 15-20 KNOTS OF ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE NIGHT...THE COOLNESS/DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS ALLOWED FOR SHARPLY AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVER LAND. A TYPICAL WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPED NEAR THE COAST AS A RESULT. THIS ALLOWED MIN TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL TO AROUND 50 NORTH AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE. A FEW SPOTS (VERO BEACH AND STUART) SAW TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE 60S AS THE FLOW BECAME ONSHORE IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. YESTERDAY...THE MODELS WERE HINTING AT SMALL COASTAL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND OF COURSE THAT SMALL SHOWER CHANCE (10 PERCENT OR LESS) OCCURRED....IN THE SOUTH! BASED ON THE ABOVE DISCUSSION ABOUT WEAK COASTAL TROUGH...THIS MAKES SENSE SINCE NORTHERN SECTIONS HAD MORE NORTH FLOW WHICH TAPPED DRIER AIR. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN THIS MORNING AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...THROUGH A SLIGHTLY DEEPER LAYER THAN YESTERDAY...WILL ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC STRATOCUMULUS TO MOVE INLAND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO SPREADING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIODS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO A FEW ATLANTIC CONVERGENCE LINES. THE MAIN ONE NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING WAS AFFECTING THE SOUTH COAST. A FEW OTHERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG OTHER PORTIONS OF THE COAST. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE THE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT COASTAL POPS. PLAN ON ONLY A FEW ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS. && .AVIATION... MORE STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE FL040 WILL OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SPREADING INTO THE COAST BUT THEY WILL ONLY PRODUCE TRACE RAIN AMOUNTS TO A HUNDREDTH OR TWO. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE PARTIALLY DISRUPTED BY WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERALL THOUGH THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE CHANGE IN GRADIENT AS RATHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. EXPECT 15-20 KNOT NORTHEAST WINDS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXCEPT AT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE GULF STREAM WITH STEEP 5-7 FOOT WAVES. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ FORECASTS...LASCODY IMPACT WX...WIMMER PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Fri, 29 Nov 2013 14:11:45 +0000
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