FXUS64 KHUN 161815 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 115 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO MAJOR COMPONENTS OF AN UPPER TROF AXIS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO TEXAS. ONE CIRCULATION WAS TRACKING ENE ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL. A DISTINCT DRY SLOT HAS FORGED NE THRU THE MID SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A LINEAR MCS/QLCS EXTENDED AT THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE DRY SLOT ALONG THE LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS FROM GA INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SECOND SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THE UPPER TROF WAS AN INTENSIFYING VORTICITY CENTER DIGGING SE THRU OK/NWRN TX. THE FIRST WAVE IS PROGGED TO BECOME SHEARED ALONG THE NE-SW AXIS OF THE TROF AS IT SLIDES E THRU OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SECOND WAVE DIGS SE INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND THEN PIVOTS THRU GA AND THE FL PENINSULA BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT ARE QUITE CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME, AND IM FAVORING LEAVING IT OUT OF THE POST-00Z FORECAST. THUS FAR, LOW CLOUD DECKS ARE PREVENTING DESTABILIZATION FROM OCCURRING OVER N AL AND SRN TN. THE SFC MAP SHOWS THE SFC LOW JUST NW OF TUPELO MS WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE E AND PERHAPS A BIT S OF E THRU NRN AL THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG NELY FLOW N OF THE LOW IS ADVECTING COLD AIR SWWD BEHIND THE LOW IN AR AND WE SHOULD SEE THIS TREND PUSH SE INTO MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL LATE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE LIFTED INTO NWRN/NC AL THEN CURVES SSEWD THRU ERN AL. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY HEATING/INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY S OF THE LOW TRACK, PERHAPS CLIPPING OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES. BUT THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAY PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE INSTABILITY TRENDS IN THIS AREA. STRATIFORM -RA WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE GREATEST POP IN SRN TN AND NWRN AL. THIS WILL SHIFT SE MONDAY MORNING INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. AS THE DEEPER UVVS DEPART THE AREA LATE MONDAY, WE SHOULD SEE COVERAGE OF PRECIP DIMINISH GREATLY. CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY HAS DIMINISHED, ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS (AND PERHAPS SOME -RA OR DZ) MAY TEND TO HUG OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THRU TUESDAY DUE TO THE WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING AND ADVECTIVE FLOW FROM THE EAST. A ZONAL MID-UPPER FLOW THEN PRESENTS ITSELF THRU MID-LATE WEEK. A STRONG NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SFC CYCLONE DEVELOPS RAPIDLY AND TRACKS THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE TAIL END OF ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD STILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, WITH THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC FORCING TOO FAR NORTH AND CONSTRAINED MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM (DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE L-M40S), FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS, LET ALONE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A PERIOD OF QUIET AND MILDER WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR FROM THU-FRI BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT DROPS SE FROM THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. AK && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1243 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/ FOR 18Z TAFS... UNSETTLED FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT... AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW ENDS THAT THREAT. CIGS...MOSTLY IN THE IFR RANGE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE PREDAWN... BEFORE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH RESULT IN A CIGS BECOMING MVFR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MON. RSB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 42 51 41 62 / 50 30 30 20 SHOALS 40 50 39 64 / 60 20 20 10 VINEMONT 42 50 41 60 / 40 30 30 20 FAYETTEVILLE 41 51 41 60 / 50 30 30 20 ALBERTVILLE 46 52 42 58 / 50 40 40 20 FORT PAYNE 48 54 42 59 / 50 40 50 20 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
Posted on: Sun, 16 Mar 2014 18:17:47 +0000
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