Fighters Only - Gambling Guide: UFC Fight Night 47: So the UFC returns to our screens this weekend after a three week break. The break will be short lived as this is the first of six events in the next four weeks. I’ll be up front this week and say that I am favouring the underdogs at UFC Fight Night 47, pretty much all the way through. I’ll either be very wrong and counting my pennies or will be sitting very smugly with a look of I told you so. Let’s break down the fights and fighters to see what’s on offer. Tavares vs Peralta: After a solid, if unspectacular, run at lightweight, it is featherweight debut time for veteran Thiago Tavares. Seven years in the UFC has seen the Brazilian face a number of name opponents with varying degrees of success, the majority coming in recent times. A loss to Nurmagomedov notwithstanding, it has been a decent couple of years for Tavares but if he wants to challenge for a belt before his time is up then competing in one of the most competitive divisions in the UFC might not be the best place for him. Robbie Peraltas most recent win over Rony Bezerra was a highly contentious split decision where the majority of the MMA media, myself included, thought he lost. Peralta once again showed that if he isn’t unloading bombs and aiming for the stoppage then going into decision territory is a place that finds him vulnerable. As I see it this fight goes one of two ways; either Tavares exposes gaping holes in Peraltas submission defence or Peralta punches a hole through Tavares’ head. In these situations I am inclined to favour the heavy punching fighter who is already comfortable at the competing weight. Tavares makes the cut for the first time and if it is a struggle then he could find himself in poor shape come fight night. The odds on Peralta make this a gamble I am happy to take. Recommendation: To Win the Fight – Robbie Peralta – 6/4 (+150) @ Coral Jordan vs May: Shawn Jordan makes his Octagon return after back-to-back knockout losses to Mitrione and Gonzaga. As a consequence he now finds himself standing at 3-3 in the UFC and on the verge of the dreaded pink slip. Jack May ending up on the losing end of a Derrick Lewis barrage late in the first round in his UFC debut. At 33 years old, it would appear that the best years of Jack May has passed him by but an undefeated regional record gave him a late opportunity at the UFC. Another performance like his first and it will surely be his last in MMAs top promotion. Jordan is small in height for a heavyweight, standing only six-foot tall. He has never beaten a man of Mays size, who stands at 6’8”, and this is where I give the newcomer an edge. With the height and reach advantage May will be very difficult to hit and he should be able to unload on Jordan at will. For this reason I give him a narrow lean and will be happy to take the longer odds on the underdog. Recommendation: To Win the Fight – Jack May – 13/8 (+162.50) @ Stan James Baczynski vs Jouban: In another veteran vs newcomer bout, Seth Baczynski looks to return to winning ways. The owner of an impressive 6-0 streak in 2011/12 that included a submission win over Matt Brown, he now stands 1-3 since that run ended. Alan Jouban makes his UFC debut in his third fight of 2014. His record on paper leaves very little to work with as just nine fights on the regional circuit reveal very little about his potential. As a product of 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu, he will have trained with or around Eddie Bravo what kind of tools he implements if the fight goes to the ground. Thematically I am finding myself drawn to underdogs for this card and this fight is no different. Jouban has a submission game too good to overlook and Baczynski is a fighter out of form. He hasn’t been submitted in seven years, but that doesn’t mean he cannot be submitted at all. To offer a submission specialist at 15/2 to win by this method is crazy and I am feeling a little crazy right now. Recommendation: Method of Victory: Alan Jouban by Submission – 15/2 (+750) @ BetVictor Boetsch vs Tavares: Brad Tavares is tough and durable, if a little unspectacular. When he gets in the Octagon his fight IQ states, quite simply, ‘take them down and keep them there’ and it works to great effect. Yoel Romero was the exception to that rule, unsurprising since he is a wrestler of Olympic level. With only two losses in the UFC and seven wins it could be argued that Tavares should be fighting at a higher level than he is presently. Tim Boetsch is a man essentially known for one fight - against Yushin Okami he was down and out, behind on the scorecards and about to be another statistic. Then something amazing happened. In a Rocky moment he pulled out all the stops and finished Okami inside one minute of the third round. Superlatives flowed; Joe Rogan overstated the importance of the performance amid rumours of a title shot followed. Three losses in his last four outings have seen him drop down the rankings so far that a Matt Brown-esque run would be needed to make him relevant again. I was hoping for better odds on Tavares by decision, but as it has happened in five of his last six then you can’t blame the bookies for being a little skinny on this one. Recommendation: Recommendation: Method of Victory – Brad Tavares by Decision – Evens (+100) @ Paddy Power Pearson vs Maynard: Less than two months after being robbed of a decision against Diego Sanchez, the opportunity has been presented to Ross Pearson to expunge that loss from recent memory. Originally scheduled to face Abel Trujillo, he now has the opportunity to take the biggest scalp of his career; that of the two-time lightweight title challenger Gray Maynard. The man known as ‘The Bully’ enters the cage in something of a no-man’s land. After going undefeated until running into Frankie Edgar, twice, Maynard has lost two on the trot and three of his last four overall. The losses themselves will hurt but all have been by knockout, with the past two coming in the very first round. Maynard is a fighter who likes to fight; he’ll stand in front of you and trade all day long if he needs to, as his brace against Edgar will attest. The biggest issue for Maynard is how much the knockout losses have taken from him. I see the fresher, younger Pearson stalking the bully and taking him out brutally, unsure of the round but very sure of the finish. Recommendation: Recommendation: Method of Victory – Ross Pearson by KO, TKO or Disqualification – 9/4 (+225) @ 888Sport Bader vs St. Preux: Ryan Bader, #8 in the 205lb rankings, looks to further progress his career in the outside hope of making a run at the title. He enters the Octagon this weekend looking to extend his sreak to three, after victories over Anthony Perosh and Rafael ‘Feijao’ Cavalcante. Indeed, with a little more composure he may have even been the man to finish Glover Teixeira, something that even Jon Jones couldn’t achieve. The #10-ranked UFC light heavyweight Ovince St. Preux makes his fifth appearance in the UFC against Bader and is still to taste defeat at this level. An athlete of substantial talent, he has finished all opponents in his four-fight run. Coupled with an outrageous level of athleticism is a combination of excellent striking and intricate submissions. With a longer record in the UFC it is Bader who opens as the bookmakers favourite but I cannot shake off the performances of OSP. Ignoring his early record it is really only Gegard Mousasi who has managed to beat him, and that took a full three rounds. By contrast Bader was unbeaten in his early years with his defeats coming in recent times. This is a five round fight, which is something that neither have been through before. I’ll be taking OSP’s athleticism to see him through the championship rounds and maybe steal a submission towards the end. Recommendation: To Win the Fight – Ovince St. Preux – 7/5 (+140) @ Unibet @FightersOnly #MMA
Posted on: Fri, 15 Aug 2014 14:05:55 +0000
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