Forecast Discussion Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2015 Jan 14 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2257 (N07W81, Eac/beta-gamma-delta) produced a pair of M-class flares in relatively quick succession as it approached the western limb. The first flare, an M5/2b flare, appeared to originate near the more southern trailer spots at 13/0424 UTC, while the second, longer flare, an M4 flare at 13/0458 UTC, seemed to come from the more northern intermediate spots area. Both flares were relatively impulsive, with a 290 pfu 10 cm radio burst being the only associated radio signature with either flare. Neither flare had an associated CME. This region appeared to maintain its magnetic complexity as it rotated closer to the western limb. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an isolated X-class (R3-Strong) event on day one (14 Jan). Chances for M-class activity decrease on days two and three (15-16 Jan) as Regions 2255 (S16W80, Dao/beta-gamma) and 2257 rotate around the west limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (14-16 Jan). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor) barring significant flare activity. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft indicated mostly stable conditions. Solar wind speed ranged between about 400 km/s to 480 km/s. Phi was predominately in a positive (away) sector, Bt remained steady near 7 nT, and the Bz component of the IMF was mostly variable between +/-7 nT through the period. .Forecast... Ambient conditions are expected on day one (14 Jan). Late on day two (15 Jan), the solar wind environment is expected to become slightly disturbed with the expected arrival of the glancing blow from the 12 Jan CME. A gradual return to ambient conditions is expected on day three (16 Jan). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day one (14 Jan). Quiet to active levels are expected on day two (15 Jan) with a chance for an isolated minor storm period due to the anticipated glancing blow from the 12 Jan CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (16 Jan) as effects from the CME subside.
Posted on: Wed, 14 Jan 2015 01:40:12 +0000
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