From Nesdis regarding the flooding event across Western S Central - TopicsExpress



          

From Nesdis regarding the flooding event across Western S Central Texas: SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/15/13 1506Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1445Z HANNA . LOCATION...TEXAS... . ATTN WFOS...CRP...EWX... ATTN RFCS...WGRFC... . EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX JUST S OF THE US/MEXICO BORDER HAVE BEEN WARMING, LATEST IR IMAGERY OVER THE LAST HOUR HAS SHOWN SOME RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN A SMALL AREA OVER KINNEY COUNTY. HAVE NOTED SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING ON BOTH WV IMAGERY AND 12Z SOUNDINGS BUT BLENDED PW ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EXTENDING N THROUGH CNTRL TX WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1.0-2.0"/HR IN THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION. . LATEST WV AND VIS IMAGERY ARE SHOWING A NUMBER OF CIRCULATIONS EVIDENT WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IN PLACE OVER TX TO LOCALLY ENHANCE MID-LEVEL FORCING WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A WEAK MCV CIRCULATION JUST W OF MAVERICK COUNTY. AT THE SURFACE IT APPEARS AS THOUGH CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING JUST E OF INVERTED TROF AXIS THAT EXTENDS UP JUST S OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-1800Z..MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH PATTERN IS NOT AS FAVORABLE TODAY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY FOR EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL, STILL BELIEVE THAT LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY EXACERBATE ONGOING CONDITIONS. GOES SOUNDER IS SHOWING DESTABLIZATION OCCURRING JUST UPSTREAM OF CIRRUS CANOPY FROM DECAYING MCS AND HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME INCREASING CU FROM SCHLEICHER COUNTY EXTENDING SW TO S OF THE BORDER WHICH MAY HELP TO SHIFT ANY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT A LITTLE FURTHER W ON THE SHORT TERM. MOST RECENT IMAGE JUST IN AND HAVE SEEN SOME CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER KINNEY COUNTY WHICH SUGGESTS THAT RAINFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED AROUND 0.50"/HR AT LEAST ON THE SHORT TERM.
Posted on: Sat, 15 Jun 2013 15:12:46 +0000

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