GREECE The ASE broke its 3-day losing streak on Friday, closing 2.4% higher and limiting weekly losses to 6.8%. The banking sector recorded gains of 1.8% (-7.3% on a weekly basis) while transaction activity remained low, at EUR69.4mn (including block trades of c. EUR14mn). Eurobank outperformed among banks, closing 3.4% higher (+5.6% intraday high), followed by NBG (+2.2%) while Piraeus shed 2.4%. Among non-financial large caps, Jumbo (+8.5%), Aegean (+7.8%) and OPAP (+3.95%) recorded the highest gains on a daily basis. Political developments remain the main driver and in this respect, the market is expected to remain jittery this week on concerns over the outcome of the upcoming elections. Politics // Weekend polls show Syriza’s lead has crystallised between 2.6% and 3.5%. Three new polls that were published over the weekend (Kapa Research, Pulse, Alco) seem to suggest that Syriza’s lead has crystallised between 2.6% and 3.5%. The results of the three opinion polls are broadly similar to the previous surveys of the 3 pollsters published 1-2 weeks ago, with Syriza polling between 28.1% and 31.2%, namely below the absolute majority threshold. On the other hand, another polling company (Public Issue) suggests that Syriza is closer to the absolute majority leading by a 8% margin (38% vs. 30% for New Democracy). That said, we note that the opinion polls conducted by the particular pollster have consistently shown a wider gap between the two parties. The same has been the case for all pollsters that allocate undecided voters on a pro-rata basis. Undecided voters remain a double-digit figure and will largely determine the final result. Interestingly, according to Pulse, 15% of the undecided voters voted for ND in June 2012 compared with 6% that voted for Syriza. Politics // 2nd round of national elections possibly under way (press) According to press (Kathimerini), members of the SYRIZA party have implied that Mr. Tsipras might opt for a second round of national elections, in February, in the event that his potential coalition partners refuse to renegotiate a full restructuring of the Greek debt with the Troika. Politics // Greek MoF comments on March debt repayment The Greek Ministry of Finance stated that the issuance of treasury bills in March in order to repay EUR 2.5bn maturing government debt may not be a straightforward case responding to public statements made by SYRIZA leader. Specifically, Mr Tsipras said that his government may tap the tbill market in order to cover March repayments, however the ministry warned that i) there is a cap in the issuance of tbills (EUR 15bn) that has already been reached since December suggesting that any additional issuance should be agreed with Troika and ii) the demand for Greek tbills comes mainly from the Greek banks which may not have the required liquidity, especially if the country is not in a program with the EU at that time given ECB’s warning to stop supporting Greek banks in that case. Banks // Greek banks may need to tap ELA soon (press); BoG says deposits under control According to press reports (kathimerini) Greek banks may soon need to tap Bank of Greece’s Emergency Liquidity Assistance mechanism as liquidity gets more tight. According to the same sources, deposit outflows of the last few months coupled with increased t-bill issuance by the Greek state and lack of eligible collaterals for ECB operations may lead Greek banks once again to draw financing from the ELA. We remind that Greek banks have used this source of financing extensively since 2011, however their reliance on ELA had been reducing consistently since early 2013, while since May 2014 it had returned to practically zero levels. The impact from taping ELA once again will come in the form of higher cost of funding as ELA is ca 150bps more expensive than the ECB financing, but also slightly cheaper than the average time deposit rate. On a separate note, Bank of Greece announced that deposits are under control stating that there is no need for any extraordinary measures, although highlighting the fact that together with the ECB they are closely following the liquidity conditions of the Greek banking system. OPAP // Ex-div today; EUR0.23 per share OPAP shares will trade ex-div today. As a reminder, the gross dividend (tax exempt reserves plus interim dividend) amounts to EUR0.23 per share (EUR0.21 net). Dividend payment will commence on 19th Jan.
Posted on: Mon, 12 Jan 2015 07:40:42 +0000
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