Geopolitics and the Philippines Typhoon November 13, 2013 | 1535 GMT Watch this video Stratfor Senior Asia-Pacific Analyst Matt Gertken examines Super Typhoon Haiyan, its likely effect on the Philippines and the geopolitics of natural disasters. Video Transcript Geopolitics means watching not only the fixed geographic features that shape countries behavior, but also the climate and natural disasters that periodically threaten socio-political stability and economic development. In the aftermath of Super Typhoon Haiyan, estimated to be the strongest storm ever to make landfall, the Philippines is seeking assistance from the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Japan and others to address the immediate humanitarian disaster. In addition to thousands dead, the storm may cost well above $1 billion in direct damage, and its impact will linger for years to come, especially in the hardest hit Eastern Visayas. Earthquakes in Turkey, Haiti and Japan, droughts in Africa, flooding in Pakistan and Australia, and tropical cyclones in Southeast Asia and the Gulf of Mexico -- these events represent some of the perennial natural challenges to prosperity and political organization. The Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters estimates that anywhere from 3 to 12 percent of the world population is normally affected by natural disasters and that the global costs can range from $50 billion to $350 billion depending on the year. Disasters obviously have a disproportionate impact on smaller states or poorer ones -- the direct cost of Japans triple disaster in 2011 of earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown is estimated at about 4 percent of a very large gross domestic product, whereas the 2010 earthquake in Haiti was 120 percent of GDP, according to the IMF. The U.S., Japan and other developed countries obviously have more resources relative to the cost of responding to disasters and rebuilding. This includes superior infrastructure, forecasting and warning systems, response capabilities and insurance coverage. Rebuilding businesses and reviving agriculture can take years, and some things are irreparably changed. While reconstruction can provide a boost to some sectors, the jury is out on whether economic growth tends to reach previous potential in the years after major calamities. Every country is different. In order to have geopolitical meaning, the question is whether a disaster causes a shift in socio-political or economic patterns. Japans nuclear energy sector has yet to recover from the Fukushima crisis, and its energy profile may be permanently changed with the political contentiousness surrounding nuclear restarts in the coming years and the reshaping of the electricity sector over the next decade. For the Philippines, on average roughly nine cyclones make landfall each year, so the country is familiar with dealing with the aftermath of typhoons -- but Haiyans magnitude was extraordinary. The Philippines spends an estimated half of a percentage point of GDP every year on disasters in general. Storms over the past 30 years have subtracted an estimated $6 billion, or about 2 percent of 2012 GDP. This years costs will rise above the average, since the Eastern Visayas contribute about 2-3 percent of GDP on average, and a large chunk of that output will be gone. Population and industrial centers on Leyte Island were hit hard. Already reports indicate that coconut production, a major Philippine export, will take years to recover. There may also be some risk to the recent boom in manufacturing and mining investment in the region, especially if the government cannot handle reconstruction. The national government will be under pressure to demonstrate its responsiveness in the short run and its ability to mitigate future disasters in the long run. The country held national and local elections earlier this year, so the storm will not trigger a leadership overhaul, but it will reshape the terms in office of those recently elected. Internationally, U.S. assistance may help generate public good will at a time when the two allies are negotiating expanding U.S. military visitation rights at Philippine bases. Japans contribution to the relief effort is small but symbolic, since it helps to change perceptions of its military revival in a country that Japan invaded during World War II.
Posted on: Wed, 13 Nov 2013 16:05:40 +0000
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