Getting respect on Grantland: grantland/features/the-30-mlb-power-rankings-nationals-royals-mets-twins-trade-deadline/ Here’s a fun futures bet for you: Which Mets starter will lead the majors in ERA in 2015? Consider where the team’s rotation stands at the moment, and how it’s shaping up for next season, and that’s not as crazy as it might seem. Matt Harvey, the linchpin of next year’s rotation, threw off a mound on Friday for the first time since Tommy John surgery and appears to be on track to go through a normal winter and spring regimen. Before injuring his elbow last season, Harvey posted a 2.27 ERA and totaled more strikeouts (191) than baserunners allowed (170), so if he’s back to 100 percent by Opening Day 2015, he’ll be one of the best pitchers in the league. Maybe someday, someone might even recognize him. Zack Wheeler, meanwhile, is constantly enhancing Mets fans’ appreciation for the 2011 trade that sent two months of Carlos Beltran to the Giants for the young hurler. Another power right-hander, Wheeler has improved across the board this season after showing occasional flashes of brilliance last year. He’s boosted his strikeout rate (to about one per inning), trimmed his walk rate (by about half a walk per nine innings), and hiked his ground ball rate (to 52.7 percent, ninth among qualified NL starters). He’s still got work to do, as he’s carrying the sixth-highest NL walk rate despite his year-over-year improvement, and has generally struggled with his command at times. Still, his fastball-slider combination has been devastating against right-handed hitters from day one, as they’ve hit just .217/.287/.327 against Wheeler during his brief MLB career. He’s an improved changeup away from rising into the NL’s top pitching tier. Jon Niese has struggled with injuries, making only 44 starts since Opening Day 2013. However, the 27-year-old lefty has been a steady performer when healthy, doing a particularly good job of limiting extra-base hits, with just 19 homers allowed in 265.1 innings during that span. That’s helped suppress his ERA — which sits at a tidy 3.24 this year — despite mediocre strikeout rates. Niese is signed cheaply through 2016, with club options that could keep him in town through 2018. Noah Syndergaard has yet to throw a pitch in the big leagues, but he’s shined in the minors, punching out 436 batters in 395.2 innings during his five-year minor league career and putting up shiny surface stats prior to playing in the preposterous home environment of Las Vegas this year. He’s 6-6 and 240 pounds. He can dial his fastball into the high 90s and has a curveball that’s going to give major league hitters nightmares. And he doesn’t turn 22 until the end of this month. Baseball Prospectus and MLB rated him as baseball’s 11th-best prospect entering this season, and he’s widely expected to be big league–ready next spring, if not sooner. And then there’s Jacob deGrom, the biggest surprise of the bunch. The ninth-round 2010 draft pick arrived in the big leagues with a modest pedigree and even more modest numbers: a 3.62 ERA, 333 hits in 323.1 innings, and a so-so 267 strikeouts over that span (though with parts of two seasons spent in the aforementioned Vegas League). Despite not boasting the blazing fastball that Harvey, Wheeler, and Syndergaard possess, deGrom’s early MLB returns have been terrific. Though he didn’t make his big league debut until May 15, deGrom has inserted himself into the NL Rookie of the Year discussion, fanning 90 batters and allowing just five long balls in 94.1 innings while flashing a 2.77 ERA and 2.97 FIP. Back in early June, ESPN’s Mark Simon wrote about deGrom’s pinpoint fastball control and his ability to change speeds and fool hitters with his secondary pitches. The 26-year-old righty has improved since then, and actually seems to be getting better with every start. In his last eight starts, he’s posted a 1.52 ERA and has limited opposing hitters to a .212/.269/.249 line, and on Saturday he was perfect through six before losing his no-hit bid with two outs in the seventh. He held on for the win, becoming the first Mets rookie to win five consecutive starts since Dillon Gee did so in 2011. That Gee and veteran Bartolo Colon aren’t even worth mentioning among the projected top five for 2015 speaks volumes about the Mets possessing something every other team longs to have: too much starting pitching. And that brings us back to trades: The Mets failed to convert any of that young pitching talent into hitting help at this year’s deadline, but some have speculated that the team could pursue a deal in the offseason, perhaps even targeting Rockies star Troy Tulowitzki. Acquiring Tulo probably isn’t going to happen, because the Mets would likely need to include peak Seaver, Strawberry, and Gooden in the deal to pull it off, but whether or not the Mets look to make a move, one thing is clear: They’ll be well armed in 2015. Bank on it:
Posted on: Mon, 04 Aug 2014 22:38:48 +0000
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