Good Monday morning! Just like yesterday’s “forecast discussion”, we have a lot to talk about and here’s your “weather headlines” this morning… 1) Get ready to hear a LOT about the historic blizzard in the northeastern United States today! I’ve attached a snow forecast from the European Computer Model showing 3-4….FEET of snow for New York City! That’s with 60-75 mph winds expected to cause drifts from 6-10 feet! This could cripple the city and Boston is expecting the same thing. 2) We will continue to melt away snow from the last storm today through Wednesday with highs in the 60s and 70s expected! 3) A cold front will show up Wednesday afternoon and temperatures will drop to near seasonal averages on Thursday…then back in the 30s and 40s for Friday through the weekend. 4) Yes. It will rain and snow Friday through Sunday. How much? Well, as you will see, the forecasts are all over the place from just 1-3” of snow…to over 7 inches of snow with over an inch of rain as well! It’s still too early to be exact, but stay tuned as we get closer to this time period and more detailed information shows up! IF you have any snow left, it will get a good melting today with plenty of sunshine under sunny to mostly sunny skies. Winds won’t be too bad either as they blow from the west and northwest at 10-20 mph all day long. High temperatures will vary from 75 degrees in Childress where no snow is on the ground to 59 degrees in Clovis where snow remains. Ive attached the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh Computer Model) and NAM (North American Computer Model) forecast for 5pm today. Note that any precipitation will stay in Mexico...or well to our east and closer to the developing blizzard off the northeast coast. A few more high clouds may drift by tonight and early Tuesday morning giving us mostly clear to partly cloudy skies to begin our day. Overnight low temperatures will drop to 27 degrees in Clayton to 38 degrees in Childress. Winds will be light and blow from the west at 5-15 mph throughout the night. Tuesday will feature a little more cloud cover as an upper-level disturbance moves through northern Mexico, southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, but we will just see the cloud cover from this and no rain/snow (yet). This storm will sit and spin over northern Mexico for a few days, then head our way by the time we get to Friday and the weekend (more about that later). High temperatures will rise well into the 60s to near 70 degrees over most of the area….to near 80 degrees near Childress! Winds will blow from the west and southwest at 10-20 mph. Get out and enjoy this taste of “spring” a little early! Tuesday night and early Wednesday will be mild with low temperatures only dropping down to the mid 30s to the mid 40s by sunrise. Now, this is “cool”, but a far cry from the “normal” low temperature of 25 degrees! Winds will blow from the west at 10-20 mph throughout the night under partly cloudy skies….which will also help to keep the low temperatures warmer than average. Wednesday will be the last “unseasonably warm” day for a while as cold air starts showing up by the late afternoon hours as a cold front blows through. Before the front arrives, we will see high temperatures rise into the 60s and 70s over most of the area, but the OK Panhandle and NE NM may only see highs in the 50s as the front arrives earlier there. Winds will begin the day blowing from the west at 10-20 mph, but will shift around to the north at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts possible after the front blows through your hometown! Skies will be partly cloudy throughout the day. The 30-year average high temperature for Thursday is 52 degrees…and that’s pretty close to what we are expecting for a high temperature as well with mid 40s to the mid 50s by late day. Winds will blow from the north at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts possible….especially over the eastern Panhandles. This will cause wind chill values to dip into the 30s and partly to mostly cloudy skies will also add to the “chilly feel” in the air on Thursday. TGI Friday looks to be a day in which the upper-level storm system that sat over northern Mexico all week long….begins to move our way. It will be cloudy and cold and scattered showers (rain) should develop over New Mexico in the morning and then move into the Panhandles during the afternoon hours. Rainfall totals look decent and could reach the ¼ to 1/3 inch range by Friday night. Winds will blow from the south at 5-15 mph as high temperatures reach the mid 30s to the mid 40s by late day. There’s a GOOD chance of precipitation on Saturday. There’s also a GOOD chance that we will a mixture of rain and snow. What’s still not so clear is how much of each we will see! I’ve attached the European, GFS (American) and Canadian computer model forecasts for snow showing 3 inches on the European for Amarillo, 7 inches of snow for the GFS and 2-4 inches of snow for the Canadian. Confusing? Yes! I do think that we will see snow in the morning on Saturday with low temperatures in the upper 20s to the lower 30s, but then the temperature will rise above freezing to the mid and upper 30s…so the snow will changeover, or mix with rain. Saturday night, the temperatures will fall back below freezing and the rain/snow mix will change back to all snow. Simply put, stay tuned as we get closer to this time period and we get more details on what you can expect! I do think that we will see some light snow to begin Sunday, but as the upper-level storm system moves away, the snow will end and amounts will be an inch less (on top of what snow falls on Saturday). High temperatures will struggle to reach freezing (32 degrees) on Super Bowl Sunday under cloudy morning skies that will clear out and become mostly sunny to partly cloudy in the afternoon hours. Winds will be breezy from the north at 15-25 mph and some higher gusts possible….which will create wind chill values in the teens to around 20 degrees! NEXT Monday will be warmer, but just barely. High temperatures will rise into the upper 30s to the mid 40s as mostly sunny skies prevail. As we have seen lately, we will have to deal with snow cover that will keep high temperatures down in those cities, but not where snow didn’t fall. Those locations may see high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s by late day. So, that’s a look at your “forecast discussion” for this Monday. Take care, enjoy the warmth and just stay tuned throughout the week as we get a more “clearer” picture of what we can expect this weekend and how much rain and/or snow could be headed our way! See you back here first thing tomorrow morning!
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 11:53:10 +0000
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