Good Monday morning! We have some areas of patchy fog ongoing right now that could cause a few delays when you head out the door to work and school! The fog could be locally dense, but patchy....so you wont have to deal with it everywhere...and it will burn off completely around 9am. Most of today will be warm and dry and after 3pm CDT, we will start to see a few, isolated showers and t-storms develop along a surface trough of low pressure. This means that the OK Panhandle and NE NM will more than likely stay dry as the surface trough will have pushed through this area and end up sitting across Eastern New Mexico and the TX Panhandle by 5pm. High temperatures will range from 84 degrees in Childress to 71 degrees in Clayton. Winds will blow from the southwest at 5-15 mph this morning, then become light and variable by this afternoon. If you look at the KVII Computer Model, HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh Computer Model) and the NAM (North American Model), they all show a similar idea...that there could be a few, hit and miss t-storms across the TX Panhandle and Eastern NM this afternoon. Note that most of us will get missed by the t-storms this afternoon, but there will be a few of them around after 3pm CDT. Average rainfall amounts, IF you are lucky enough to get underneath one of the t-storms, looks to be in the .25 to .50 range. Overnight, the isolated t-storms that developed this afternoon will linger until around midnight, then dissipate before sunrise tomorrow. Overnight low temperatures will drop to around 50 degrees by sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected. Winds will blow from the south and southwest at 5-15 mph throughout the night. The rain chances on Tuesday will be confined to Eastern New Mexico only as the main, upper-level storm system starts to head our way. The rest of us will see partly cloudy skies in the morning, with mostly cloudy skies expected by Tuesday afternoon as the storm system approaches. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler with highs in the 70s as southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph in the morning shifts to the south at 10-20 mph in the afternoon. On Wednesday, isolated showers and t-storms will be possible with mostly cloudy skies expected. As you can see from the attached European, GFS (American or Global Forecast System Model) and Canadian computer models are all in some fashion of agreement that hit and miss t-storms will be possible on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Most of us wont see the rainfall and if you do, the Deterministic Computer Model data from the European and GFS (attached) doesnt show much rain at all (.1-.2) High temperatures will rise to near 70 degrees on Wednesday with southwesterly and southerly winds at 10-20 mph. As the upper-level trough of low pressure moves east on Thursday, sinking air aloft (upper-level high pressure) will move overhead causing our skies to be mostly sunny with a high temperatures rising to near 80 degrees. Winds will be light and variable throughout the day. For TGI Friday, well, get ready for some unseasonably warm temperatures with highs in the 80s throughout the region by late day! Winds will blow lightly from the southwest at 5-15 mph throughout the day. What about the Friday night high school football weather? Well, its going to be another fantastic night for football as mostly clear skies prevail and kickoff temperatures in the mid to upper 70s drop to around 70 degrees by the 4th quarter. Winds? Not a problem. They will blow from the southwest at 5-15 mph throughout the game. Perfect! Next weekends weather will stay unseasonably warm with highs in the 80s both Saturday and Sunday. Remember that going back over the last 30 years, high temperatures should be right at 70 degrees! Winds will be lighter on Saturday and blow from the southwest and south at 5-15 mph, but will increase on Sunday as the next upper-level storm system heads our way causing southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph in the morning, then increase to the 15-25 mph range with some higher gusts possible in the afternoon hours. The next cold front is set to arrive early NEXT Monday morning switching our winds around to the north at 15-25 mph on average and some gusts to 35-40 mph possible. Skies will be partly cloudy and it appears that the front will blow through the area dry... It will be colder with high temperatures rising into the 60s throughout the area by late day. Thats a look at your Monday morning forecast discussion. Take care, have a great day and Ill see you tomorrow morning with another look at your weather!
Posted on: Mon, 20 Oct 2014 10:46:39 +0000
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