Good Saturday morning! Here’s the “weather headlines” this morning…. 1) It’s going to be a breezy/windy day today, but despite the strong north winds, it will still be a pretty “nice” day with highs in the 50s/60s. 2) We will have even nicer days for Sunday and Monday….then it starts turning colder again on Tuesday. 3) The computer models are still “all over the place” on Wednesday and Thursday’s storm system and snowfall totals, but 1-3” for the TX/OK Panhandles still looks reasonable. Could be more, could be less. For today, you had better hold onto your hats as the westerly winds shift around to the north and increase to the 15-25 mph range with some gusts upward of 35-40 mph possible for most of the area. If you live in cities such as Beaver (OK), Booker, Perryton, Miami, Canadian, Pampa, Wheeler, Shamrock, McLean, Memphis, Wellington, Clarendon, Childress or Paducah, you had better get ready for winds to be sustained in the 20-30 mph range with some gusts upward of 40-50 mph! This will take the highs in the 50s and 60s and make it feel colder when you factor in the wind chill value, so that will take some of the “nice-factor” away from today. There will be abundant sunshine today with sunny to mostly sunny skies. I’ve attached the KVII Computer Model forecast for 5pm today, the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh Computer Model) and the NAM (North American Computer Model) to show you that any or all the rain will be confined today to northern Mexico or Deep South Texas from Laredo to Brownsville. Tonight will be much more calm as the winds settle down and actually shift directions during the night. Northerly winds at 5-15 mph this evening will shift around to the southwest by sunrise tomorrow at 10-20 mph. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the 20s, which is perfectly normal for this time of the year. Skies will stay clear to mostly clear as well. Sunday looks to be a breezy day with not as much wind as today, but from a different direction (southwest) which will help to boost our high temperatures back to what we saw on Friday (60s!) Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with just a few patches of high clouds drifting by occasionally. High temperatures will soar into the 60s over most of the area (see attached NAM forecast high temperatures for Sunday). If it weren’t for that wind, it would be a spectacular day, but southwest winds at 15-25 mph, occasionally gusting upward of 35-40 mph, will be common on Sunday. Monday (MLK Day) will end up being nicer than tomorrow with less wind (southwest at 5-15 mph in the morning and southerly at 5-15 mph in the afternoon) and high temperatures pushing the 70 degree mark! Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy and sunshine will abound! IF you have the day off for Monday…get out and enjoy it! Why? Because it changes on Tuesday! A cold front will show up around sunrise on Tuesday and abruptly shift our winds around to the north at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts possible. This cold front will knock our high temperatures back to around 50 degrees (about a 20 degree drop from the highs we are expecting on Monday!) and more cloud cover will also accompany this frontal passage. So, after a brief “vacation” from the cold on Monday, it’s back to being more “January-like” around here for Tuesday! Then, there’s Wednesday. Yesterday, the GFS (American Model) broke away from the European and Canadian computer models and showed the approaching storm system moving south of us. The European held fast to it snowing around here and the Canadian was pretty much in-between. Well, today’s data is just the same as yesterday’s! The attached European, GFS (American) and Canadian computer models are still singing the same tune with the European showing the MOST snow for our area (a large 2-4” swath over most of the region and exactly 2 inches for Amarillo) while the GFS is completely and totally DRY for our area and all the snow is along the mountains of the Rio Grande around the Big Bend area! The Canadian shows around 1 inch of snow for Amarillo and a few, higher “spikes” of 2-4” snowfall totals here and there. So, I’ve said this many times, but I tend to trend toward the European Computer Model because it tends to not “flip-flop” as much as the GFS (American) model does. I have seen the European “flip-flop” some, but not as much as the GFS. The Canadian tends to also be a “flipper” and be a day behind what the European shows. So, I’m going to “stick with my guns” and go with a rain/snow mix beginning after lunch on Wednesday and then changing over to all snow Wednesday night and early Thursday. I still think a 2-4” snowfall total for our entire area looks feasible and unless something changes, that’s what I’m going with for this time period. Wednesday will be turning colder with highs in the 30s and 40s under mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. Winds will shift during the morning from the southeast at 5-15 mph to the northeast at 5-15 mph as more cold air shows up. Thursday will begin with snow falling and end with the snow moving out. Again, I’ll stick with the 2-4” snowfall forecast for now, but stay tuned and check back often as this could quickly change. High temperatures on Thursday will hug the freezing mark (32 degrees) with cloudy skies expected all day long. Winds won’t be too bad and blow from the north at 5-15 mph in the morning, then shift to the west at 5-15 mph in the afternoon hours. TGI Friday will be a day to thaw out, dry out and warm up (a little) to high temperatures in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. The high temperature forecast for TGI Friday will be HIGHLY dependent on how much snow we receive on Wednesday and Thursday. If you don’t get much (or any) snow, then high temperatures in the 40s appear likely. If you got the predicted 2-4” of snow, then the upper 30s will be as warm as it gets. Skies will begin the day cloudy, but clearing skies will occur during the day and by late day, we will see mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Next weekend will be a time to warm up, dry out and melt the snow that fell during the Wednesday and Thursday time frame. Again, much depends on how much snow fell and if it’s still on the ground on Saturday, but high temperatures in the 40s and 50s look likely as winds swing around to the northwest at 10-20 mph on Saturday and stay that way for the day on Sunday. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will occur both days with just a few patches of high clouds moving quickly by. That’s a look at this Saturday’s “forecast discussion”. I hope that you have a great day and hold onto your hats due to that wind! I’ll be back here same time tomorrow morning with another update on our expected weather for the next 7 days. See you then!
Posted on: Sat, 17 Jan 2015 12:33:41 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015