Good Thursday all! Its the first day of the past 4 which hasnt produced a sub-0 temp in the greater Chicago area! In a month running 15-deg below normal and 12-deg colder than the same period a year ago, thats welcome news indeed. But the real thermal bonanza arrives next week! A February thaw appears a real possibility. This 4th day of warming may yield the highest temp of the lot--potentially a near-freezing afternoon high. (Chicago OHare highs have moved from 12 Monday to 14 Tuesday and 24 Wednesday--and may close in on freezing for the first time in 12 days today). Unfortunately, the warming is to be interrupted. A bit of a temp setback occurs tonight and into the weekend as northwest winds usher colder air back into the area for a brief stay. The only good news here is THIS chilly spell isnt nearly as intense as its recent predecessors! And the warming which takes place next week is to melt some serious snow here. Its a development which could become troublesome since core moisture samples from the Weather Services network of volunteer observers across the area indicate 1 to 4 of water is tied up in the icy snow pack. That some significant rainfall may visit the area on several occasions next week could present us with run-off issues over the frozen ground. And the break of ice on area rivers could lead to ice-damming. So this is a situation to monitor for sure. But, for what its worth, yet another run of the European Centers global model puts 60-deg temps in here late next week (toward Thursday--with 50s indicated next Friday). Normally youd say NO WAY to that with so much snow yet on the ground. But that same model suggests dew points, thanks to stacked (and strong) SSW winds in the Thursday time frame, are to surge to 50 or higher here. That would keep nighttime temps up and could provide an environment in which temps could conceivably build to such unseasonably mild levels. Such warmth and a powerhouse jet stream overhead at that time could mark the potential for some active early season t-storms too. Never a dull moment here. Models, as might have been expected, project a return to a colder weather regime after the predicted run of late week warmth. Winters not done with us yet. Check out the latest GFS model temp departures for Days 1-5, 6-10 and 11-15, the two most pronounced surges of warmth in the panels Im posting off the European model next Monday and Thursday and the temp departure snapshots off that model for midday next Thursday and Friday off our in house MDA database as well as the late week precip forecast which is worrisome given the potentially rapid snowmelt we expect later next week.
Posted on: Thu, 13 Feb 2014 17:01:11 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015