Good Tuesday morning! Im taking a few days off-air, but will still update this forecast discussion daily. A big thanks to Storm Search 7 Meteorologist Alyssa Pawlak for filling in for me today and tomorrow! There have been a few subtle changes in the computer model data this morning, but I think they will be changes that you will like. First, it appears that the European, GFS (Global Forecast System) and Canadian Computer Models are all settling on an arrival time for the first round of rain (Ill talk about the second round in a minute) that will be associated with the remnants of Simon and an approaching cold front. As you can see from the NAM (North American Model), at Noon on Thursday...theres no rain....anywhere nearby. It appears that we will just see cloud cover increase these next few days as Simon approaches. High temperatures may drop a few degrees because of the clouds, but no rain....at least, not yet. The Canadian Model shows rain starting as early as Friday morning over the OK and N TX Panhandles (Guymon, Boise City, Beaver, Stratford, Dalhart, Spearman, Perryton, Booker) and over NE NM...then spreading south as the cold front heads south. The GFS is not showing as much rain as the European or the Canadian Model this morning, but still ends up dumping around .4 of an inch on Amarillo by Saturday afternoon. The European is WET this morning with 1.3 of rain with Simon and the cold front....and .4 more with a second round of rain. The second round of rain is being caused by another upper-level storm system set to move through next Monday. This is the first day that the European has shown this feature. The GFS and Canadian had it yesterday, but they show a weaker disturbance with lesser or no amount of rain for us on Monday. We will see, but we could end up with a one-two punch of rain for the next 6 days! Lets go back to todays forecast. All the computer models agree that it will be warmer than yesterday, a little cloudier than yesterday and with about as much wind as yesterday (which wasnt much!) Our high should rise to 87 degrees, which is about 12 degrees warmer than normal for today. Winds will be variable in direction today at 5-15 mph under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies as upper-level cloud cover from Simon starts to head our way. Tonight will be mostly clear to partly cloudy with overnight lows dropping to the 50s over most of the area and perhaps, only into the lower 60s in/around Childress & Paducah! Winds will be light from the south and southwest at 5-15 mph tonight. Tomorrow will be even cloudier and because of that, we might see high temperatures a degree or two cooler literally! We are going iwth a high of 86 as partly cloudy to occasionally, mostly cloudy skies prevail (especially over New Mexico, which will be closer to Simons remnants) Winds will blow from the south and southwest at 5-15 mph. Thursday will be quiet (as it looks now) with partly to mostly cloudy skies and the cold front and upper-level disturbance which will combine to kick off our rain chances on Friday...lurking to our north. As mentioned above, the NAM has things quiet up to Noon and while there might be a few t-storms developing in the afternoon hours on Thursday, the most likely place for those to develop would be over Kansas, southeastern Colorado, the northeastern corner of NM, the OK Panhandle and the northern TX Panhandle (Dalhart, Stratford, Spearman, Perryton, Booker). In other words, dont expect much, if any rainfall to occur on Thursday. Otherwise, it will be another warm day with highs in the lower to mid 80s under mostly cloudy skies and with south and southeasterly winds at 10-20 mph. TGI Friday is the day that the rain starts falling for most of us and depending on where you live, you either have the best chance of rain in the morning....or the afternoon and evening. As the cold front moves through during the day, we will see the better rain chances shift from the areas mentioned in the last paragraph during the morning hours...to the rest of the area during the afternoon. Rain will be heavy at times and the average rainfall amounts look to be in the .25 to .75 range for most of us...with isolated, heavier totals in the 1-3 range with the t-storms and slower-moving storms. We will probably get a better idea of rainfall amounts tomorrow and Thursday, so keep checking back for more updates on that. High temperatures will tumble back to below season averages on Friday as our winds swing around to the northeast at 15-25 mph wtih some higher gusts possible as well....making it feel even colder than the forecast highs in the 60s and 70s when you factor in the wind chill. There wont be much sun on TGI Friday with cloudy skies expected. Friday night will also feature rain and a few t-storms to go along with northeasterly winds at 10-20 mph. If you are planning on heading out to a Friday night high school football game, you had better bring along the cold weather gear and something to keep you dry! (Umbrellas, raincoats, ponchos, etc!) Kickoff temperatures around 60-65 degrees will drop back to the upper 50s to around 60 degrees by the 4th quarter. With northeast winds at 10-20 mph during the games, it will feel even colder than what the thermometer indicates. Bundle up! Saturdays forecast looks a little cloudier and perhaps, wetter during the morning hours than first thought yesterday. The rain may linger during the morning, with clearing skies by the afternoon. It will be cool with highs only in the 60s over most of the area and around 70 degrees in and around Childress by late day. Winds will blow from the northeast at 5-15 mph in the morning, but shift to the southeast at 5-15 mph in the afternoon as the next disturbance approaches. Sunday will feature warmer high temperatures as highs rise into the 70s over most of the area under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow from the south at 10-20 mph throughout the day as the next cold front starts to make its way into the OK Panhandle and N TX Panhandle (Dalhart, Stratford, Perryton, Spearman, Booker) by late afternoon. Next Monday could be wet again with scattered showers, cloudy skies and if the European is correct, breezy northerly winds at 15-25 mph making it feel even colder! Just how cool will it be? The European has a high of 58 degrees for Amarillo by Monday afternoon! Hello fall!! We will see what happens as the GFS isnt as cold or as wet as the European, but as I have mentioned many times before, the European usually picks up on an idea like this one and the GFS and Canadian follow suit later. Granted, the GFS and Canadian picked up on this idea yesterday, but they arent showing the rainfall and as much cooler air today. We will check and see what they say tomorrow. So, take care, enjoy the unseasonably warm temperatures today and the light winds! Ill see you again tomorrow morning around 6am with another forecast discussion!
Posted on: Tue, 07 Oct 2014 11:08:11 +0000
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