Good Wednesday morning! Its going to be a hot and breezy day today and if you are VERY lucky, you might see a t-storm this afternoon! Now, before you get too excited, as far as our rain chances (in percentages go), we are looking at less than a 20% of rain. In fact, our KVII Computer Model has a 14% chance of rain for Amarillo. Granted, thats better than 0%, but that means that theres an 86% chance of not getting any rain. Winds will be breezy today and will be blowing from the south at 15-25 mph with some occasional higher gusts possible as well. High temperatures will vary from 99 degrees in Childress to 91 degrees in Clovis/Portales. You can see the KVII Computer Model forecast for 5pm today. The NAM Computer model is also showing VERY isolated t-storms as well for our area by 6pm. Tonight, we will see the very isolated t-storms until around sunset, then the storms will go away. Skies will be partly cloudy with breezy southerly and southwesterly winds blowing all night long at speeds averaging 15-25 mph with some higher gusts. These breezy winds will keep our overnight low temperatures in the 60s and 70s by sunrise tomorrow. Tomorrows weather will be much like what we are expecting today as mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies prevail and the winds will keep on being breezy from the south at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts possible. High temperatures may not rise as high as what we are expecting today (thanks to an increase in Gulf of Mexico moisture) and we will see highs range from 90 degrees in Clovis, Tulia and Clayton to 97 degrees in Childress. A few, isolated afternoon t-storms will again be possible...especially over the western half of the High Plains. The weather for the weekend will be much like Thursdays with muggy conditions, partly cloudy skies, breezy southerly and southwesterly winds at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts possible...and a very slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm each afternoon and evening across the area. That means that most of us will just be dry (and hot) with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s. The GFS and European computer models are indicating how much rain we are expecting around the area. Again, its not much...but there will be some refreshing showers and t-storms around to provide some relief for a select few. The slight t-storm chances will roll on into early next week with the hit and miss t-storms expected each afternoon and early evening. High temperatures on Monday will rise again into the lower and mid 90s. Winds will blow fro the south and southwest at 10-20 mph. The Canadian computer model is showing what kind of rain chances we can expect Monday afternoon and evening. Things will change on Tuesday as the cold front that I have been talking about the past few days...moves through. Winds will switch around to the north at 10-20 mph behind the cold front that will blow through during the day. High temperatures will drop into the 80s with isolated to widely scattered showers and t-storms. Wednesdays weather could end up being cooler with the best rain chances that we have seen in a while! Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered showers and t-storms! High temperatures range from 79 degrees according to the Canadian Computer Model to 89 degrees on the GFS. By the way, the Canadian computer model has the cold air moving in during the day dropping the 6pm Wednesday temperature to 66 degrees! We will wait and see what happens and keep you updated! Now, for the tropical update! First off, remember that we are about a week away from the time that the computer models are indicating a hurricane moves into the Gulf ( or not, according to the Canadian Computer Model). These computer model forecasts are being presented to you as a guide to plan or keep relatives informed who live along the Gulf Coast. Okay, thats my disclaimer. That being said, here we go... The Canadian Computer Model, who just yesterday morning had a category 4 or 5 hurricane hitting New Orleans...has shifted WAAAAY east and now has a hurricane east of Florida moving up the Atlantic Coast! These shifts are common this far out in the forecast cycle. The European Computer Model, which didnt have a tropical system AT ALL in the Gulf of Mexico, has a hurricane hitting...New Orleans! The GFS? It too has a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, but is a little more east of where the European Computer Model is located. So, what does this all mean? 2 out of the 3 models have a hurricane in the Gulf. Thats what we call a model consensus and therefore, we are pretty confident that there will be a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico mid to late next week! We again will keep you updated with more data as we get it. Take care and have a great Wednesday!
Posted on: Wed, 20 Aug 2014 10:42:17 +0000
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