Good afternoon. The Storms Prediction Center in Norman has issued - TopicsExpress

Good afternoon. The Storms Prediction Center in Norman has issued a heads up notice known to spotters and other officials as a Mesoscale Discussion. They are issued to give technical data and information to the general public when thunderstorm development, flooding, or winter weather hazards are expected. In this case the discussion affects portions of Southwestern Kansas but may lataer include portions of Northwestern Oklahoma depending on development and movement over the next several hours. for the possibility of isolated severe weather. Click See more to view the entire post and the actual discussion. ACUS11 KWNS 302222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302221 KSZ000-302315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1781 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 302221Z - 302315Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND E OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE...BUT POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT CAPE AND ANY ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND RISK. DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING/MIXING HAS REMOVED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE ZONE OF DIFFUSE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE NE TX PANHANDLE TO NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR HYS. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CLOSE TO I-70. THE STORMS WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WHILE SPREADING NEWD...BUT ONLY MID-UPPER 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6 C/KM IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THUS...THE HAIL/WIND RISK WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS POSSIBLE WHERE WARM SECTOR CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE RICHER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHILE INTERACTING WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WATCH AT THIS TIME. ..THOMPSON.. 09/30/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 39179900 39519768 39739680 39639654 39369652 38689724 38089790 37619842 37249894 37089947 37309973 38149943 38849936 39179900

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