Good evening! Their is now a confirmed Invest area 92E (nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html) in the East Pacific ocean which the GFS is now developing into a possible strong TS or #Hurricane going into Mexico. ***This I think is an important key ingredient in our possible development next week in the Gulf!*** As you see in the video of the latest GFS run it is taking the system into Mexico and crosses over into the BoC (Bay of Campeche). The energy of that storm from the Epac into the BoC/Gulf seems to hold together as a low pressure system. The combination of the low pressure, the low pressure coming off from Louisiana into the gulf and some energy from the NW Caribbean merging together could be the spark of development in the southern Gulf! Again as of right now with the current shear in the Gulf of Mexico the models are not developing a strong system but they do show a possible weak depression or Tropical Storm which still could cause flooding concerns to wherever it decides to go along the Gulf coast. As of right now I would give about a 30-40% chance of development next week... stay tuned! Track the season 24/7 at TrackTheTropics --Chad #LHC #ModelWatch #HurricaneSeason #Tropics
Posted on: Sat, 31 May 2014 00:49:49 +0000
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