Halloween Severe Weather Update 12:39 Pm. The updated day 2 convective outlook has been posted to the page, the outlook and probability maps have not do to no change in area. We are looking at what could be a widespread damaging wind event with tornadoes possible. As mentioned in this mornings update it looks like the best chance of severe weather will be in the afternoon and evening hours with the event possible lasting into overnight hours for East Tn. However it will weaken as it moves into East Tn, but the threat will still be there. Things we will be looking at is how much convection will be around during the morning hours of Thursday, if the convection holdS off we could see more destabilization which would result in an increased severe weather threat. Deep layer wind feeds are forecast to strengthen substantially as the through becomes negatively tilted with a belt of 60-70 kt or 69.1-80.6 MPH at 700 MB. The strongly sheared but low instability environment could allow for storm that evolve within the warm sector and could become organized, this would allow for an increased threat for damaging winds and tornadoes perhaps one or two strong. However this storm system is likely to become complex and messy during the afternoon. The main line of storms should be in the West Tn area in the afternoon and move into Middle Tn by evening, this line will be low-topped which will result in decreased lightning threat. The main threat with the main line will be damaging winds, however bowing structures could be supportive of tornadoes within the main line. This system will then progress eastward into the East TN area by evening into the overnight hours. We will keep everyone update on this event, and as always please share the information we post. -Tyler V1- #tnscwx #WestTNwx #MiddleTNwx #EastTNwx.
Posted on: Wed, 30 Oct 2013 18:18:28 +0000
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