Handicapping the MVP race By Mike Sando ESPN Insider Rodgers, Manning, Brees Theres a good chance that Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning or Drew Brees will be named MVP. Drew Brees seemed like a solid MVP choice for the upcoming NFL season when I filled out my 2014 predictions for our preview. Silly me. Peyton Manning, winner of five MVP awards over the past 11 seasons, casts a large shadow over the field as an 11-4 betting favorite. Brees has never won MVP honors even though a QB has won the award six of the past seven seasons. Well get to Brees in a moment, but any MVP discussion must begin with Manning, the only player given odds shorter than 5-1 when Bovada released its prop bets for the season. I also wanted to focus on the long-shot chances for a couple of wide receivers, including one who was added upon request as a 100-1 shot after his name did not appear among the 43 players initially listed. Heres a look at the MVP field based on odds heading into the 2014 season. Six players listed at better than 20-1 odds 1. Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos (11-4 odds) Manning has never missed a start in any season except the one he missed entirely. It has become futile betting that this will be the year he finally fades. Manning wont be facing the AFC South in the scheduling rotation this year, however. He gets the NFC West instead, but he also has his left tackle back in the lineup. The Broncos are a statistical machine and that will not change. 2. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (5-1) Rodgers won MVP honors for the 2011 season when the Packers went 15-1 and he finished with a 45-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rodgers remains the focal point of the offense, but Eddie Lacys presence should balance out the offense at the expense of raw passing stats. No Packers RB had more than 135 carries or four rushing TDs when Rodgers was MVP. 3. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints (8-1) The Saints play three of their eight road games indoors against teams with question marks in the secondary (Detroit), up front (Atlanta) and everywhere (Dallas). 4. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots (9-1) Brady averaged 300 yards passing per game during his 2007 MVP season. He averaged 314 over his final eight starts last season. He still doesnt have a dynamic outside receiver, however, and that lowers his statistical ceiling. 5. Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts (12-1) Im interested in seeing whether a second season in the same offense helps Luck make a jump that shows up big on the stat sheet. My feel is that hes carrying the weight of a flawed roster on his back, to the detriment of statistical efficiency. 6. Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks (16-1) Coach Pete Carroll will always want to feature the running game. This team is much better at receiver than it was last season, however, and Wilson is gaining momentum following Seattles Super Bowl title. Five guys at 20-1 odds or better 7. Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears (20-1) Cutlers numbers improved last season, but it was the second season in three years that he missed at least five games. His numbers over his past 50 starts very nearly mirror those for Andy Dalton, who is listed as a 100-1 MVP shot. Is Cutler suddenly a new man? Its tough finding converts in the league even though optimism runs strong within the Bears organization. 8. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings (22-1) Peterson Will the Vikings need to finish better than .500 for Adrian Peterson to win MVP? The situation is perfect for Peterson. He has a defense-minded head coach who values the ground game. He has a questionable quarterback situation that forces the staff to make Peterson the focal point. Theres also good enough talent on the offensive line. Unfortunately for Peterson, theres never been an MVP winner from a team with a losing record. The past 17 winners played for teams that averaged 12.8 victories a season. Barry Sanders won it with the 9-7 Lions in 1997. 9. Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers (25-1) Other QBs will have better stats even if the 49ers become more of a three-receiver team. Its also going to be tougher for the 49ers to get into the 12-plus victory range given the hits theyve taken this offseason. Ive got more on Kaepernick in the notes section below. 10. LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (25-1) Chip Kellys offense helped McCoy set career highs in rushing yards (1,607), yards per carry (5.1) and yards per reception (10.4) in 2013. A fuller appreciation of his contributions as a receiver would enhance his chances. 11. Nick Foles, QB, Eagles (25-1) Theres a split in league opinion regarding Foles, but his 27-2 TD-to-INT ratio earns him a spot on the list. Itll be tough outperforming McCoy, however. My favorite long-shot candidate Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (100-1) Harvin is sliding under the radar a little bit. Injury concerns are legitimate, Harvin is not a polished receiver and this offense will go through the running game, so I get the long odds. But Seattle paid huge money to Harvin for a reason. The team has big plans for him, offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell knows how to maximize him and Wilson is only getting better. Harvin will be a focal point of an improved offense for a team that could again win more than 12 games. That puts him in the MVP conversation even though a wideout has never won the award. Side note: Thanks to Bovada head oddsmaker Pat Morrow for adding Harvin to his prop bets upon request. Notes • Irsays meaningless suspension: The six-game suspension and $500,000 fine levied against Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay does ... what? For practical purposes, suspending an NFL owner after all the roster decisions have been made is like suspending an assistant coach during March, when he isnt really needed. If the league suspended a player for two months of the offseason, the punishment would be seen as a joke, right? Missing games will be tough for an owner as emotionally invested as Irsay seems to be, but how does his absence for the first six games of the season matter? The timing of Irsays plea deal was a factor that worked in his favor. • 49ers optimism: The Niners havent had much to smile about lately, but that should change in a big way when their offense lines up against the Dallas Cowboys defense in Week 1. I could see the 49ers rushing for 250 yards. They once topped 300 against Buffalo a couple of years back. Former NFL defensive tackle DMarco Farr put the over-under at 220 when we spoke Tuesday during our weekly radio conversation on 101ESPN St. Louis. The start of the regular season will reveal just how much the 49ers offensive scheming matters. If the preseason has sometimes been about developing Kaepernick as a pocket passer, the regular season is about doing what it takes to win. The 49ers know what it takes. A defensive coach I spoke with recently took note when Kaepernick overthrew a receiver on a curl route from inside the pocket on a shotgun dropback this preseason. Now theyll go pistol and play-action and its a way different game, the coach said. The next thing you know, it can be Green Bay revisited. That was a reference to Kaepernicks dominance against Green Bay in recent seasons. • Watts new deal: There are no losers in the contract J.J. Watt signed with the Houston Texans. Watt gets financial security for life. The Texans are betting on a sure winner, someone who already was becoming the face of the franchise in the absence of an established QB or head coach. We can debate whether the Texans needed to do the deal with two years remaining. We can ask whether Watt, 25, should have pushed for a shorter deal that would let him hit the market again before age 30. In the end, both sides got what they wanted and we know this because neither side was facing a deadline. • Carrs challenge: While offensive game planning will help Kaepernick, defensive planning can be tough for a rookie quarterback to overcome. That figures to become evident for the Oakland Raiders Derek Carr even though the New York Jets are hurting at cornerback. When college teams run no-huddle offenses, defenses often play simple coverages. Carr could see 10 different defenses on his first 10 plays against Rex Ryans Jets, and when he sees a certain look for the second time and anticipates a blitz, hes more likely to see the defense play coverage. Itll be a great achievement for Carr and the Raiders if their offense functions consistently well even against the Jets depleted secondary.
Posted on: Wed, 03 Sep 2014 18:29:50 +0000
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