Here is an article from Business Online, rather badly translated from Russian, but I share with you as I think you will get the drift of it :-)) I am a little tired of trying to open our eyes to the nature of the oligarchic coup in Kiev . Well zombies want to believe what maidan zdobul let you believe. Soon they will redouble communal and sell Naftogaz in private hands. And we will focus on the economic aspects of what is happening . Because, as Karl Marx said , the policy - is the quintessence of the economy and the whole political theatre is only a reflection of the curves of economic processes , which in reality rule the world . Russia finally took Sergei Pereslegina concept that war is being waged simultaneously in three spaces - the power , information and economic (and actually force - the most extreme means ) , and began to act accordingly. Lets start with an easy example , and then well move on to more meaningful. Mr. democrat Viktor Balogh , who for many years methodically cut down the Carpathian forests and commit other crimes ( not necessarily economic) , something vyaknul recently towards Russia. A few days later on his account in a Swiss bank was discovered 450 million euros , the origin of which doubtful ( although it is clear also that he is their fair stole ) . These funds were immediately confiscated. Then pan Balogh locked in the most severe depressnyaka in his honestly stolen estate in Transcarpathia , where binge drinking is engaged and only occasionally breaks his anger in Facebook, making toothless anti-Russian statements , which nobody cares . The other day the second richest man in Ukraine oligarch Igor Kolomoisky spoke against Vladimir Putin. Putin did not take offence. Just the next day, the stock owned by Kolomoiskiy and his partner Gennady Bogolyubov British oil company JKX Oil & Gas not only stopped growing , but rapidly went down. Soon it will be garbage assets . What a weird accident. Furthermore, against the Russian branch Privat, Moskomprivatbank suddenly began an investigation into terrorist financing . I think that the facts found and prove it. And you? It is possible that were attacked (or subjected ) and other assets Kolomoyskogo . It is only superficial information I got just a couple of hours of searching . Some have not yet understood that Putin does not take offence - it is counterproductive . Putin punishes . And he does it in a highly efficient, surgically (as opposed to U.S. sanctions that are trying to kill a mosquito from a catapult ) . No emotion , the bare facts . At yesterdays press conference [ article was written March 6 ] Putin said that provisional government should be defined, and if there was a revolution in Ukraine , the contract with the previous authorities are automatically considered broken (because it violated the principle of continuity of power , it is logical and legally right ) In response, some members of the provisional government had time to react , that if the agreement is invalid , then the debt is not necessary to give Russia . The problem is that the debts are not targeted . Eurobonds are not written by a certain name, they are universal. And if the interim government officially announced that it disclaims liability for the debt, you will not see them receive loans from the IMF and assistance from the EU as they currently beleive. Moreover, a well-known fund Franklin Templeton, which owns about half of the state debt , may not understand this joke and is a little offended . There has recently been bankrupted bankers and economists associated with JP Morgan, - about 20 people have died suddenly or committed suicide . And from such jokes from the provisional government may suddenly start suicide Ukraine. Financiers - people without a sense of humour. By the situation in Crimea . Again, purely economical . If Crimea will hold a referendum on self-determination , on the one hand, it will press the provisional government , which is already threatened with criminal cases , disconnection of water and electricity , as well as going to introduce austerity measures in accordance with the requirements of the IMF. On the other hand - Russia offers $ 5 billion investment in infrastructure and ready to stimulate the flow of Russian tourists in Crimea . I wonder what would you choose in this case? Tasty threats or vile investment? I just speculated . With regard to U.S. sanctions . Russian economy does not need anything. Germany is so dependent on the Russian market she will impose sanctions against Russia at her own peril. And what can the U.S. do in the Russian economy? Deprive Russian officials access to Disneyland ? All right, its time to give up. WORSE THAN THE GREAT DEPRESSION Now more global aspects. To better understand what is happening , I sketched a simplified model of the U.S. economy. The last couple of years there is pumping U.S. economy dollar weight , received a coded name of quantitative easing . Now coming to the end of the third period of the pump referred to as QE3. It is accompanied by several secondary processes . First, the sharp increase in the money supply inevitably leads to inflation. Second, the U.S. foreign debt accumulates faster than expected , leading to the rapid achievement of statutory threshold of public debt (debt threshold). Debt is rising because the dollar weight on monetary financial system is tied to the volume of Treasury bonds (« assured them). Inflation leads to the fact that the allure of buying Treasury bonds ( U.S. debt ) falls as the inflation rate is greater than the interest on the bonds. Consequently, the Federal Reserve System (FRS or FED) in conjunction with the Treasury will be forced to raise interest rates (interest rate) on bonds . This leads to several other effects. A) Due to increased profitability treasury bonds growing interest on loans (since lending is considered more risky operations than buying government debt ) . And because the American economy is built on credit and already extremely stretched , this in turn leads to a reduction in consumption. This is because to borrow becomes more profitable , and maintenance costs already make loans more expensive. B) Reduction in consumption leads to a decrease in production . Reduction in production leads to higher unemployment. Next stagnant loop loops . B) increase in profitability treasury bonds leads to higher service debt. Growth of the national debt imposed on the appreciation of his services , creating a geometric progression . Only conditionally positive thing in all of this - is that inflation devalues already partially taken loans in the U.S. population . But, given the scale and proportion of good , it is a very small consolation . By many indicators, the current crisis has already surpassed the Great Depression . United States is on the verge of default and hyperinflation simultaneously. And how long can they delay both these events , no one knows. Moreover, many analysts say the last three years saw the outflow of capital from the BRICS countries and their influx into the United States. But most of them do not analyze the qualitative component of this phenomenon , limited quantity . A qualitative aspect shows that BRICS is the outflow of speculative capital only , and capital investment remain in place. Conversely, in the United States is flowing predominantly speculative capital ( attracted growing interest on treasury bonds and infusions of money program QE2 and QE3), but it does not cause the development of production and the creation of new jobs (job creation). From my point of view, BRICS is a positive trend , and for the United States - the negative (for speculative capital nafig not needed, a parasite ) . BUY LOW! In light of this need to be considered and the latest developments in the Russian markets . Few days there was a decline of the ruble and the cost of many Russian assets , such as shares of Gazprom and Sberbank of Russia. Liberal commentators were quick to say that it is the consequences of invasion of Russia to Ukraine, a harbinger of imminent fall of Putin personally and the Russian Federation as a whole , as well as other standard liberal we all die . The rest stated exactly the opposite pattern . Yes, there was depreciation shares a number of strategic enterprises by 10 - 15% , accompanied by a certain weakening of the ruble . But first, many countries are now deliberately slightly weaken their currencies to boost the profitability of their export (this basics of foreign wars) . Secondly, the Russian government to fully realize the basic tactics of all stock traders buy when low » (buy low), bought up a significant part of strategic assets from other market participants , including non-residents , the lower peak, while saving on the purchase order $ 20 billion (compared to the average price ) . In fact, in Russia there was a partial nationalization of strategic industries - in the most convenient time for this . Kirdyk OR tryndets ? In fact, one could argue that Russia has taken another big step towards the establishment of autarky ( self-sufficient, independent economy ) and forgo the use of dollars. And it is natural and reasonable. The U.S. economy is unsustainable and rests only on the status of the dollar as an international unit of account . If, say, Russia , China and Iran simultaneously abandon the dollar by entering another unit (eg energorubl , of which so much is said) , then the U.S. economy in the shortest time will come ... I do not know what more scientific term - kirdyk or tryndets ? If these countries are at the same time do something on top of the margin call on all their existing treasury bonds depth tryndets be repeatedly reinforced. As you know, American soldiers are fighting well , only when they have a Big Mac , toilets and regular payment of salaries. And after the collapse of the U.S. domestic economy they will not be up to external aggression , as domestic crowd disgruntled consumers deprived dose of shopping, they will arrange a local zombie apocalypse . Indeed, as rightly observed first Immanuel Wallerstein , and then Fedorov , the population of the imperial metropolis bribed by plundering colonies. And when the robbery terminated , it is highly indignant sharp deterioration in the quality of life . But before giving up and returning dollars back treasury bonds need to lose as much paper to minimize losses. The next phase of the plan complied with the Russian leadership in the best possible way , and still received on this income . Of course, if the dollar collapses , it will collapse the modern model of the global economy. It will hurt for almost everyone. And less likely to affect those who will have it autarky - Iran, Russia , China. And if they also form a common economic cluster ( and Germany, if not stupid , to join them ), then let the whole world wait . U.S. is trying to implement a similar plan of lowering the whole world , but so far they have not very successful. Russian-Chinese prospects much more impressive . And if this plan is implemented, all who played on the side of the global West , will be in the losers that they will not recoup another 50 years . Ive always been a third way for the preservation of the middle path for Ukraine. But Evromaydan and interim government deprived us of that luxury every day they kill the remnants of our independence. Therefore, we must be determined , and quickly. Place your bets , ladies and gentlemen . But consider this well before you decide who you want : a resource-rich Russia and rapidly dying out or Islamised Europe
Posted on: Mon, 17 Mar 2014 17:48:16 +0000
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