Here is what I think is a realistic dialogue about the 2014 election as of now. I agree with Paul Begala about motivating the Democratic base, with Ana Navarro that Anything can happen. Its too early, I think, to predict anything & much more: transcripts.cnn/TRANSCRIPTS/1409/30/nday.06.html NEW DAY Actor Pays it Forward; Democrats Gaining Ground; Alton Nolen to be Charged for Beheading His Coworker Aired September 30, 2014 - 08:30 ET JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: A brand new CNN/ORC poll might raise some eyebrows and some hopes among Democrats this morning. So with five weeks to the midterms, 47 percent of likely voters told us they support Democrats for Congress. Thats a narrow advantage over Republicans. But thats a six-point swing in a month. So what could be behind this shift and is this a key turning point in the battle for control of Congress? Were going to ask CN political commentator and Republican strategist Ana Navarro and CNN Political commentator and Democratic strategist Paul Begala. Hes also a senior adviser to the super PAC, Priorities USA Action. Paul, let me start with you. Are you ready five weeks out today to declare victory for the Democrats based on this poll? All of your problems are behind you. This is a turning point. PAUL BEGALA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Oh my gosh, Im about 42 days and - ANA NAVARRO, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Go ahead, Paul. Go ahead. BEGALA: Probably 42 days and probably 42 beers away from doing something that stupid, John. No, its within the margin of error. And this thing will go back and forth. It is, I suppose, a little bit of good news for the Democrat. They went from four down to two up. What I found really interesting in this poll going into the guts of it, is this is likely voters, which is the sensible metric to look at. Thats the proper thing to be focused on. But when you look at registered voters, a far larger pool, Democrats are leading by seven. What does that mean? That means my Democrats got to get more people who are registered but unlikely to vote out to the polls. This is all about motivating the Democratic base and Democrats have got to do that if they have any hope in this election. BERMAN: Yes, an enthusiasm for this election is somewhere about three levels below the basement right now. BEGALA: Right. BERMAN: So that will be difficult, I think, for both parties, Paul. Ana, let me ask you this. Now, let me tell you what youre going to say. You are going to say, this is a generic congressional ballot test. It does not tell us anything about control of the Senate. Lets stipulate that. But let me show you a number thats interesting here. Its about independents. We talked about the swing toward Democrats. Its a bigger swing to independents where they now lead by two points. But is - you know, its a big swing there with Democrats making up a big chunk and Republicans losing a big chunk. Why do you think independents may have been swayed over the last few weeks? NAVARRO: Well, first of all, youre right, you must have read the notes because, yes, you know the -- heres the thing about this proverbial, generic candidate. You cant get john generic and jane generic on the ballot and you actually have to run on the political candidates that are on the ballot and all politics is local. October is a month for surprises. Anything can happen. Its too early, I think, to predict anything. And really we know what the bulk of the races, both for the House and the Senate, are going to look like. There are maybe, in both houses, seven, eight, up to 10 in the house races that are a coin toss and could go either way. And that could depend on the weather, on turnout, on who the voters hate more that day, whether they hate Democrats in Congress more or they hate Republicans in Congress more. Whether they think Obamas more of a nincompoop or John Boehner is more of a nincompoop. So anything can happen. And October is a month which is known for political surprises. Watch for a lot of scandals for, you know, congressmen to get caught kissing an assistant or, you know, kicking a dog or not paying a tax or something in October because thats what the month is for. Its called October surprises. So lets wait for a few more weeks before we start talking about predictions. BERMAN: Wow, watch for a month of scandals. And I do hope the john generic phrase was not a swipe at me there, Ana, but well - well move on. Paul, theres a phrase that I like to use in politics that I dont know if youve heard. Its called its the economy stupid. And in this CNN/ORC poll, it is interesting because we asked voter what they care about. Do they care about the economy or the war against ISIS more. And the overwhelming majority said it is, in fact, the economy that is driving their vote for Congress this time. Is this surprising given that the last four weeks have been so dominated by news about foreign policy specifically in the battle against ISIS? BEGALA: No, I think thats sensible. This is a congressional election. In the main, Congress doesnt run foreign policy. But I will -- let me first just divert to this ISIS, which was at zero a few month ago and now is at 29. And I do think the Republicans have hurt themselves here. I think the president has helped himself by -- he went from looking -- admitting he didnt have a plan. Now he looks strong and decisive and were taking military action. I think the Republicans, in the eyes of those independents, where theyve collapsed, they look like theyre playing politics. I mean they should have just rallied around the president. The presidents plan - Charles Krauthammer, the very conservative columnist, said he thought it was the only plan that could possibly work. And I think that would have been a better political position for the Republicans. When youre seen this playing politics with national security, it cannot help. Then, of course, you do have the economy, where the big problem for the Democrats is median family income has not moved. And while its true the economy is better, were creating jobs, the stock markets up, gross domestic product is up, the median family income has not moved and thats probably the most important driver of political behavior. BERMAN: Yes, its how things feel and things just dont feel good enough right now to so many Americans. Ana, I want to shift gears right now and talk about the last Republican nominee for president, Mitt Romney, because he keeps doing interview after interview after interview where he just doesnt seem able to rule out completely the possibility that he might run for president again. The latest was The New York Times magazine. Hes not saying hes running. I mean I think most of us doubt that he will. But he refuses to give that blanket comprehensive statement where he says, Im not running. Whats going on here? NAVARRO: Well, listen, speculation is good for everybody. I think hes said it pretty much in several ways that hes not running. And I give it to Mitt Romney because he has completely rehabbed himself. After the 2012 election, nobody wanted to hear about Mitt Romney. Now he is the most sought after Republican surrogate. Everybody hes endorsed and everybody hes supported has won their primary. He is in a wonderful spot right now where everybody loves him. Hes sought after. Everybody wants his advice. Everybody wants his donor base. Everybody wants his contacts. And everything he warned about is turning out to be true. So this is the best place Mitt Romney has been in, in the last six years. I think hes going to stay there and I think he should bask in this glory. He deserves it. Hes earned it. But I doubt that hell be running. BERMAN: He should retire now if he were not retired in fact already. Ana Navarro, great to have you with us. NAVARRO: Oh, no, let him not - let him not retire. He can raise a lot of money still. BERMAN: Paul Begala, Ana, great to have you with us. Thanks so much. BEGALA: Thanks...
Posted on: Sun, 05 Oct 2014 07:30:56 +0000
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