How about this serious food for thought from my friend Martin Udogie: Are You A Fast or Slow Thinker? Beware When we’re asked 2+2, our answer is immediate and spontaneous. It doesn’t require effort. We can answer such question while talking or texting on the phone, driving, swimming, etc. But assuming we are asked, 17x24? Ah-ha! This is not something we answer right-away, while talking or texting on the phone. You experience slow thinking as you proceed through a sequence of steps to get to the exact answer. Carrying out the computation is a strain. This takes some effort. Above problems illustrate the difference between fast thinking and slow thinking. And how and why we should be mindful of how we apply each. Some answers come naturally to us, based on our experience, prior knowledge, intuition, expertise, etc. Whereas others task us, requiring us to stop, think, and proceed with some effort and caution. Disaster can arise when we mix these two up, as we all are wont to do, sometimes. This is the subject of a beautiful book, Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, winner of 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics Try the following: A bat and a ball cost $1.10. The bat cost $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? People who answer the very obvious 10c appear to be fast thinkers, followers of the law of least effort. Those who avoid the 10c answer appear to have more active minds. Infact, more than 50% of students of Harvard, MIT, and Princeton gave the intuitive – incorrect-answer of 10c, which shows how some people can be overconfident, and tend to place too much faith in their intuition. And be flat wrong! (By the way, the correct answer is to give the $1 to the bat; and then split the remaining 10c (equally) between them. So the ball costs 5c). Here’s another. If you’re a Christian, you should be able to answer this: How many animals of each kind did Moses take into the ark? The number of people who detect what’s wrong with this question is so small that it has been dubbed the “Moses Illusion”. Moses took no animals into the ark. Noah did. Finally, try this. All roses are flowers Some flowers fade quickly Therefore some roses fade quickly. A large majority of university students answer TRUE to above, when in fact the argument is flawed. Because it is possible that there are no roses among the flowers that fade quickly. As in the bat and ball question, overriding the obvious, tempting answer requires some effort, some hardwork. But most people do not take the trouble to think through the problem. They jump to the answer, or as we say, jump to conclusion. And this can be unfortunate, or even fatal. Applying fast thinking when slow thinking is called for, or slow thinking when fast thinking will do, can be disastrous. The author discusses several factors that do impair our judgments or decisions that we are typically not aware of when making decisions. He says, “we can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.” On January 15, 2009, a US Airways Flight 1549 lost both engines three minutes after take-off. As the air-control quickly debated with the Pilot the quickest airport to head to (slow thinking), Captain Chesley Sullenberger instinctively headed for the Hudson River (fast thinking), landed the plane on the River, saving all 155 occupants. So, what’s the take away from all this? The book is about the quality of decisions, and judgments we make; when to apply fast, intuitive thinking and when to undergo some effort, some analysis, through slow thinking to solve a problem or challenge. Regards, Martin Udogie
Posted on: Tue, 21 Jan 2014 20:42:18 +0000
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