I am asked what is going on in Egypt. I am sure there are those in US government who know what is going on, not my sources. Clearly this is communicated at the highest levels, maybe even side-stepping state department channels and going directly to the National Security Council. If I venture a guess, they will: 1- Remove cabinet and appoint their own. A star team of sorts from the military point of view. 2- Keep the president. Maybe call for another round of elections by the end of the year. 3- Appoint their own committee to modify the constitution and call a referendum on changes. Alternatively, make the constitution temporary for 10 years.Maybe even annule it all together or return to 71 constitution. I’d say 2nd option is better. However, I also know that the military is typically ill advised. 4- Call for elections after issuing their own electoral law. 5- Impose curfews and martial law until after referendum/elections. Reason I am saying the above and it is not a coup is that: 1- They tried to govern and it did not work. Clearly. It was a disaster. They promised never to do it again. 2- Reading their statement, it says that they have no intentions of getting into politics. 3- Finally, I understand the above were the demands the military gave to the president and he said in his speech. Now, it will be managed by the military itself rather than the president. 4- The US will not allow an overt coup with its own arms. I think the brotherhood plan in next 48 hours will show if my guess is true. If they stage massive rallies to support the 4 year term of the president (legitimacy), then it means they accept all the above and are negotiating for better terms. Perhaps the military will accept that as a gesture to the Islamic parties. However, they need to act quickly. All of the above means that Egypt becomes like Pakistan. Civil leaders argue and the military is the power broker that steps every now and then. It also means Egypt will get Pakistan kind of economic growth and political instability. This very cycle is likely to repeat itself many times in the next decades as in Pakistan. This will have dramatically bad effect on economic growth and will create the recipe for major instability. Sinai will be the north western frontier. Unbreakable cycle.
Posted on: Mon, 01 Jul 2013 21:16:13 +0000
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