I see a certain newspaper and a certain forecaster are at it again with their forecast of a crippling freeze this winter. Need I remind people of their previous failures, including their forecasts of The coldest winter in modern times and 100 days of snow last winter? Unfortunately, winter tends to bring out a lot of hype and nonsense from people pretending to be weather forecasters or those who get a bit over excited and allow their judgment to become clouded. Will we have a cold winter? The fact is, it is not possible to forecast at long range with such detail and accuracy. Countless failed long range predictions from certain forecasters have proved this time and again (Hottest August in 300 years anyone?). Any genuine, clued up forecaster will give you a long range forecast based on probabilities, because Meteorology is not an exact science and there are too many variables involved. For example, they will tell you there is a slightly higher than normally probability of a slightly drier and slightly colder winter than compared with the long term average. The hyped up forecasts serve only to draw peoples attention and to get people to buy them. Realistically, you can forecast accurately up to around 1-2 weeks ahead, and I shall be sure to keep you up to date always, without the hype.
Posted on: Fri, 10 Oct 2014 07:10:53 +0000
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