IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) 322 FXUS63 KIND 140807 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 407 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 .UPDATE... THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND INTO THIS EVENING. THE COOL AIR WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY POISED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT IS MEANDERING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THEN SLOWLY SINK SOUTH BY LATE MORNING. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AMPLE MOISTURE...DECENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW CWA...WITH ACTIVITY WORKING IT/S WAY SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PICK UP IN STRENGTH WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND BECOME SEVERE. SPC HAS BUMPED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR CENTRAL INDIANA NORTHWARD...FOR BASICALLY AROUND I-70 AND SOUTHWARD. SEVERE THREATS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LARGE HAIL A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIP FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE ENDED ALL POPS BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MID WEEK...USHERING IN A WELL BELOW NORMAL CLIMO PERIOD IN TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A GRADUALLY WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SUPPORT FOR A PRECIPITATION THREAT AROUND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FROM SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES AS A POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLOSE TO PUTTING A POP IN THE FORECAST DURING THOSE PERIODS AS THE TREND SEEMS TO TIPPING IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS SUGGEST THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SPREADS SUGGESTS SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER INCREASING MID DECK SHOULD KEEP THE VISIBILITY FROM FALLING BELOW MVFR OVERNIGHT. SECOND COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND REACH LAF AROUND 14Z TODAY...IND AND HUF AROUND 16Z AND BMG AROUND 18Z. COULD SEE SOME MORE STORMS NEAR AND IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS AND CB GROUP TO HANDLE THAT. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 10 KNOTS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMF NEAR TERM...SMF SHORT TERM...SMF LONG TERM....JAS AVIATION...MK VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
Posted on: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 08:08:25 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015