If Riek Machar not become the president of this country in 2015, Salva Kiir also will instead, look for possible exit By. Mak Banguot Gok Akobo People of South Sudan and the world have ever known that, the new nation is fallen into undesired direction as the ruling clique failing to learn from others African states which had been through civil war during the early years of independence. It is very common to many African countries succumbed violent at post-independence. Putting some basic concepts of the democracy as status coup and, no one of the Dinka lead-government work in its advocacy. President is above the law and, he is everything in the country that occupies the three branches of the government. New cabinet sworn in midst of a political and constitutional crisis. Sacking the long served SPLM prominence personalities and bringing in newcomers. Those recently appointed to the government by Salva Kiir are all randomly handpicked without scrutiny. None of the current minister in the executive would help president Kiir in handling the upcoming political disorder on which, the nation reckoned toward the fundamental transformation of the system highly expected by the people of South Sudan. It was common word by Arab that, South Sudanese would have not rule themselves even when they granted sovereignty. Eight years since the Self-Determination and, South Sudanese under the current president are failing in transferring leadership from one tribe to others . Poverty, corruption, tribalism and, an ineffectiveness of the government It is one way to like power when you are able, but, without programs, people should tell you to quite that power whether you desired or not. South Sudan lost all its political directions due to ineffective government. Salva Kiir lead for eight years and, only impunity, tribalism, corruption in all its types, luck of government programs and so on. Therefore, there had been a calls for fundamental changes to positively determining the nations future. There is needs for new president to lead the country. This is real and nothing can change Riek Machars mind to confront Salva Kiir in a democratic election. Salva Kiir and Dr.Riek Machar are entrenching their powers in term of carrying on the massage of their contest to the wider nation. Because of that, Salva Kiir started intimidations tactics to disappoints those who wishing him ( Salva) an honored by-by to the nation in 2015. Many progress in Kiirs unilateral decisions on who to remove and to be replace by who in the government has been maximizing its endeavors in both the parliament and councils of ministers. President Obama said, the Communist party of the People Republic of China is better than the seemly democratic government of South Sudan. In China, five people decide but, in South Sudan, only one man decide what to do today and tomorrow. The president working out of the constitutional mandate have dissolved the entire government with an objective to screen those wishing him honored by-by to the nation which he ( Salva) failed to build. Many people if not the whole nation, believe that, any failed government is easily succumbed to dictatorial style of leadership. It is in many minds that, South Sudan is through the same footages the great Lake States went through. Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Somalia and now the Kenyan have gone through civil war at the earlier stages of their independency. Very simple to start war and not easy to resolves like of Congo etc. In this article, I would like to emphasize to justify why war is unavoidable in South Sudan as soon as the process started. I’m not being partial in this article favoring the government or those who oppose the regime, but, am here to justified and explain the facts as a South Sudanese who is encountering the situation. I won’t go beyond the context of the intellectual debate initiated in this paper. But, there are some points related to what many, if not almost Dinka tribesmen wrongly planted in their minds. Therefore, I decided to write in reflection of the fact that, if Riek Machar not become the president of this country in 2015, president Salva Kiir will instead, look for possible exit because he will not retained . It was unfortunate that, a Dinka tribesmen inspired with tribal sentimentality has been talking nonsense in media and others forums , mostly, the by-gone liberation legacies on Dr. Riek and the Nuer tribe as large. Most of the Dinka tribal members failed to recognized the positive outcome of the 1991 split that gave birth to the Nasir faction lead by Riek Machar. Baselessly discrediting the achievements made by Riek Machar with Khartoum Peace Agreement . SPLA fought the real war on successive governments in Khartoum for nearly five years from 1987-1990 when Nuer of the SPLA and the than Anyanya merged in 1987. Only that years 19 SAF Garrisons in almost all the towns in South Sudan liberated by SPLA. Without Nuer, the revolution would have not been through. It is quite different to see Riek as Nuer and Salva a Dinka with no proper justification of what Riek Machar or Salva achieved for South Sudan getting its own country. There was no reason for few Dinka during 1990s to hide in the hills of Eastern Equatoria while all South Sudanese and the world chagrined and certain the movement was actually collapsed back into a kind of tribal groups fighting for what ideology can works best to achieve freedom for South Sudanese versus Garangs New Sudan Vision and the Rieks South Sudan Self-Determination. All the new Sudan notion by John Garang end up in smoke. Garang was fighting for nothing else rather his own aggrandizement. People of South using modalities of the Self-Determination voted for their own country. Not only we in South Sudan, the world has since concluded that, the succeeded option toward the whole liberation of South Sudan independency, was the Riek Machars Self-Determination assertion. When Riek signed KPA, the only interests was not to abandon struggle for the rights to Self-Determination. His coming back to the SPLM which he was differed on movements New Sudan Notion was after he ( Riek) realized that, John Garang would abandon his far reached stance of from Numili to Alpha. This is because, Riek have collected supports around the world for his Self-Determination Vision incorporated into the Arab Islamic Constitution in Khartoum. And, therefore, the only positive modality used during and through the CPA negotiation was on Self-Determination. CPA was a subsidiary of ( Khartoum Peace Agreement) and people of South Sudan voted for their own separate state in expense of the New Sudan vision which has left few Dinka roaming in around Eastern Equatoria after Nasir Declaration searching for failed new Sudan movement. Those died on Riek side through 1990s in advocate for Freedom of only South Sudan are the real martyrs in this country. Those who died of resisting Self-Determination are the enemy of this soil. The unreached New Sudan vision killed more South Sudanese and, particularly the Nuer tribe then the Dinka who, during the liberation struggle have been most of them dwelled in Khartoum advocating Islam and Arabization as case of Dinka Abyei, Abielang ( Renk) of Northern Upper Nile and the Dinka Malual of Northern Bhar El-ghazel end up to be disturbing the nation today of Muslims rights and whatever . The fact that, starvation was the only enemy to Dinka Bhar- Elghazel that killed most of them throughout the decades of war. No Arab was fighting in Bhar El-ghazel and, almost all the towns in Bhar-Elghazel were under SAF occupation since 1980s during the real fights era until 2005. Famine that killed thousands in every part of the Dinka land has nothing related to Riek Machars split because, that was natural disaster. The 1992 retaliatory attacks on Dinka-Bor by their neighboring Lou civilian was of the hatred John Garang planted in mind of the local civilian during his reign around the Western Ethiopia. That was civilian killing civilian as it is happening today in Jonglei. Blackmailing the awaited president Dr. Riek Machar and, most of the accuses are related to some incidents of 1990s mean a waste of time by those who keeps on doing it . I would daring to tell fellows Dinka men and women that, it is not surprise for whatever had happened repeating itself if we failed to start teaching ourselves how power transfer democratically. Frankly speaking, it is unthinkable tactics to delays the conduct of the election so that, Riek Machar take over Kiir through democratic process for our country to show to others what we had been fighting for. If Salva and the Dinka tribesmen in the inner circle of his government mistake to subtype the process, hooks and crook are also a valid option to unseat Salva Kiir. In the cost and throughout the struggle toward the independency of South Sudan with Khartoum, Nuer believe that, only Northern Arab can tell who have contributed a lot versus Dinka and the Nuer in term of human and materials lost. Without Nuer, any liberation in South Sudan would be meaningless as quoted by many expert of Sudan civil war. In whatsoever, during the liberation, Salva Kiir has never succeeded in operation as army commander rather than a submissive officer lead by John Garang to stick on far reached New Sudan Vision. Riek Machar was rights to bring into a tension of society the rights for South Sudanese to their own independence country through Self-Determination. The 1990s split which wrongly being interpreted in Dinka language has inevitable achievement in all the ways through CPA. Any nationalists in this Country has many things to appreciates out of the 1991 SPLA/M split into New Sudan Vision and, the Self-Determination groups. New Sudan of Torit faction has been far reached because only one man supported by small groups of tribesmen amongst which, Salva has been remained with Garang of having no choice as he knew that, his lack of mobility that cannot cross his own sect of Gogrial will left him miserable if not any longer under protection of John Garang, the architect of the failed New Sudan mission. CPA was mainly on Self-Determination that even Garang would have not denied if ghost communicate. Neither Bashir nor Garang was thinking of right to only Self-Determination for South Sudanese that have logic in solving the decades civil wars. In doing so, Self-Determination passed and amended into the Islamic national Constitution and so the talks in Naivasha have been guided by the Constitution which Riek Machar fought for its incorporation into the laws. Word Traitor in English mean a person like Deng Majiok who sold land of Abyei to Arab for his own gratification. Nuer are not and, instead, this country will still surviving because of Nuer. To make the war real as southsudan.net, quoted, first, since the autonomy government of the than Southern Sudan started back in 2005 with the coming to forth of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) up to this point in time, there hasn’t been any tangible change in government’s policies towards the rebuilding of the new nation. The rate of corruption, tribalism and nepotism are very high and is being practiced by government’s officials and, most of them Dinka who seem to have impunity and are not accountable for any civil or criminal misconduct. Nepotism in public employment system that gave 85% government jobs held by Dinka. You wouldnt surprise when almost all the finance and administrations directors in nearly all the government institutions are Dinka. High ranking police officers in all the police unites are Dinka. etc. In order to mitigate the situation, the president announced the issuing (secretly) of official letters to nearly 76 South Sudanese almost all of them Dinka and, were reported to have been government’s officials. However, up to now there has never been any action taken by the president or the Anti-Corruption Commission, John Gatwech Lul. This was in relation to the $4 billion that got wasted and no accountability has been pursued. Millions of South Sudanese are dying of hunger, lack of services such as health, education, roads, sanitation, electricity and clean drinking water. Comparing the current regime with Addis Ababa Agreement 1972, the institutions that the government are operating under now, were established during the regional government led by Moulana Abel Alier and later by General Joseph Lago. There was no oil money like the billions of today. We are very fortunate that both of them are still alive. The ministerial compound that currently represents most of the ministries in South Sudan was built during that agreement as well as the University of Juba, some schools and the current hospital. So the question is, what has the government done with all these millions and no reflection of these monies in development? What is the future of South Sudanese innocent people who have fought the war of liberation and achieved through referendum? The second case was the Dura saga where millions of dollars were lost without any accountability. Third, was the amount of money being given to South Sudan for repatriation of South Sudanese who have been dispersed by the civil war, again these monies have gone to individual pockets. Fourth, the large sum of money being donated by the Western countries to reform the party (SPLA/M). These monies also got lost and nobody can explain what has been done with the money. The President, on his being sworn in day one, had declared a zero tolerance but this has never been substantiated. Instead the rate of corruption is growing rampantly and to the highest level. Fifth, the transitional Constitution of South Sudan 2011 that mandated the president absolute powers, which has been also ratified by the parliament is also among the causes of the problems in South Sudan because the parliament has no say in whatever the president will say, even to the extent that the president is omnipotent and could ignore the parliamentary legislations and work according to his personal convictions. Here the rule of law has no significant presence since the president is above the law. To be constructive in my argument, the president have gone to the level of dismissing elected governors which had never happened in the history of democracy if we claim to be embracing democratic principles based on what we fought for, justice, equality and freedom for all. These kinds of situations happen only when the governor breaches certain laws that could jeopardize his position by law and subject to parliamentary agreement. The point number seven, is the political wrangling within the SPLA/M represented in the political bureau, senior members, the President and his former Vice. In the real world, such significant national projects cannot be done without the knowledge of the president. Reconciliation is a sensitive project because it involves most of the issues that people need to talk about after war, reconciliation between tribes, individuals and South-North reconciliation. The election in 2015 might instigate tribal war in South Sudan if not handled with care. The reason behind this is the tribal wrangling between the main tribes, the Dinka and Nuer and the other tribes that have also been marginalized. The fight between the Machar and Kiir has been silent but now becomes clear after the president Kiir has declared sacking of Machar and appoint Wani Iga Scenario One: the president might issue a decree dismissing his Vice from both positions. That way the Vice will form a political party that competes with SPLA/M and will get majority from the Greater Upper Nile, Equatoria and the minority marginalized tribes in Western Bhar El Ghazel. SPLA/M will still have many supporters from different tribes including some Nuer. That way if the election law and the constitution are passed in 2014, there is a possibility that if the president wins the election, Machar supporters specially from Nuer and other groups will instigate violence and this will divide the army based on tribes. The same scenario is applicable to Salva in both cases either by genuinely winning the election or rigging it since he is in the power position. Scenario Two: Riek might get the majority among the citizens of South Sudan especially in Upper Nile and Equatoria plus some areas in Bhar El Ghazel. That way if he wins the election SPLA/M will deny him the presidency. His supporters will invoke violence that will turn into tribal war. Scenario Three: the president might cancel the party’s convention which is supposed to be in May 2013 and the election in 2015 by a presidential decree as usual. In this situation tribal war or a military coup based on tribes will take place. Scenario Four: if SPLA/M convinced Salva that he is not popular in South Sudan in 2015 election and that the party needs to seek a candidate, what are the outcomes? First, to be a candidate for such an election you need to be getting support overwhelmingly across all South Sudanese States. It is not a matter of endorsement of a candidate by the party that gives that candidate the right to win the majority. These are two different things and might confuse people. The candidate might fail or win but still will cause violence. However, among the party’s senior members that are known overwhelmingly in South Sudan are Pagan Amum, Deng Alor, Luka Biong, Kuol Manyang, John Luk, Taban Deng, Wani Iga, Nhial Deng and James Hoth. Who could be the right candidate to represent the party in 2015 election if the president agreed not to contest? Among these people, for example, if we select Mr. Pagan Amum to contest with Riek Machar whether Riek is an independent candidate or representing a party, there are still difficulties in terms of numbers. Pagan is popular in the party but not among the citizens of South Sudan and he’s being alleged to be part of the corruption and therefore the possibility of winning the election is weak. If we select Wani Iga, he is not very popular in the other states but only in Equatoria, a support that might not win the majority of the constituencies. Therefore, it is a risky choice for the party. But if he contests with Machar with a Dinka deputy from Bahr El Ghazel there is a possibility to win but still Riek has a ground both in the Upper Nile, Bentiu, Jonglei and Equatoria. Again, if Wani wins the election, Machar’s supporters won’t accept the outcome and might claim that the election is being rigged. Violence will take place and war might happen. Nhial Deng could have been a better candidate in 2015 but the problem of generalization among the South Sudanese plus tribalism may affect his numbers. Moreover, he is from Bahr El Ghazel and might be generalized by the ordinary citizens from other states as the same with Salva. He is an open-minded person, civilized and not tribalism given his background. Grown up in Khartoum, studied in Khartoum from primary education to the university. Could have been accepted among the Southerners to some degree if not because of tribalism and current corruption practices by Kiir’s regime. Deng Alor, very well known in the SPLA/M and in Bahr El Ghazel and Equatoria. But will that guarantee the presidency if contested in 2015’s election. If he is contesting with Machar, it will be difficult for him to win the majority of votes in the Greater Upper Nile and Equatoria. Equatoria will be the determinant factor. But will the majority in Equatoria vote for him though the issue of generalization will affect his numbers, being from the Dinka Bahr El Ghazel and deeply alleged to be involved in the financial corruption and Abyei . But again if he wins the election, war is unavoidable based on tribalism. The fact is that in any political system there are factors of degeneration. In the case of SPLA/M these factors are tribalism, clique and elitism that serve interests of few groups enriching themselves with the public funds. The party has got no vision at the moment and the only way to get out of that situation is to start the reforms right now by changing some of the policies in the party that would allow transformation into a modern political party, fighting corruption and winning the majority of South Sudanese. Unlike modern political parties, SPLM/A is not yet reformed, most of the policies still dated back to the movement. Now it becomes clear that the power struggle in the party is between individuals seeking their own interests, whether tribal or material not the national interest of the innocent South Sudanese. It will be difficult for the ordinary citizens of South Sudan to differentiate between SPLA/M, their tribes and who will serve their interest given the lack of liberal education and political orientation among the majority. After the tribal war, the real peace will come and all citizens of South Sudan will treat themselves equally based on the rule of law. Like what happened in Rwanda, genocide is not a good option but it gave an opportunity for democracy to prevail because each tribe will recognize the other and will remember that bad past and the need for a better future for the next generation. The military, likely SPLA/M figure will take over and the United Nations will monitor the situation after 2015. A transitional period will be initiated to prepare for democracy and a new constitution will be drafted. New parties will emerged or the old ones will be revived and work with SPLA/M. The SPLA/M will still have large numbers but not a guarantee to win the election in a fair competition after 2015. After 2015 the SPLA/M needs to be very careful because its domination of the political arena after the war might invoke political unrest in the country, not another tribal war. The oil revenues do not reflect on the lives of the ordinary citizens and therefore poverty and ignorance will continue. In addition, most of the oil funds will go to individuals. Mak Banguot Gok is an Investigative Journalist and Civil Society Activist and is reachable via makjohnson2005@yahoo
Posted on: Tue, 15 Oct 2013 09:59:04 +0000
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