If you think the traffic in Nairobi is bad now, wait until 2100. According to the UN’s latest Word Population Prospects report, Kenya will grow from 44 million in 2013 to 160 million in 2100. The report, released June 13, projects the global population to soar to 11 billion by the end of the century. For those following population trends, the report may come as a surprise. The last UN population report in 2010 projected a world population of 10 billion by the year 2100. The numbers were revised to reflect higher fertility rates and increased life expectancy in many developing nations. The most startling figures emerge from Africa, where three quarters of the growth takes place. By 2100, Africa’s population is expected to reach 4.1 billion people. That would equal more than a third of the total population. Four African nations will contribute the majority of growth: Nigeria, Uganda, Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo. In Nigeria, the population will reach 914 million, surpassing the United States. With 160 million, Kenya would become the world’s 15th most populous nation. The reason for Africa’s overall growth is straightforward. Since 2010, fifteen sub-Saharan nations saw a five per cent increase in their fertility rates. In addition, medical advancements have seen improved life expectancies in the developing world. The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) have an estimated life expectancy of 58 years, but by 2100 it could reach 78 years. Other regions of the world, however, show declines. Europe’s population will drop by 14 per cent and China’s will decrease, as India transitions into the world’s most populous nation. One must always be weary of future predictions. But, in the case of the UN’s demographic forecasts, there is a precedent of accuracy. In 1958, the UN’s population division estimated that the world’s population would reach 6.3 billion by 2000. It was over by 200 million, only a three per cent difference. So, if the UN’s projections are largely correct, what does that mean for Africa’s future? The immediate reaction might be doom and gloom. But, there are several more optimistic opinions worth considering. First, it’s important to remember that the new report bases its numbers on an overall decline in global fertility. And in Africa, although some nations will maintain higher rates, the overall trend is downwards. The UN report reached its figures using a medium variant, which means a conservative assumption of fertility decline in the developing world and a slight increase in the developed world. Top 10 in 2013: China 1.4 billion India 1.2 billion USA 320 million Indonesia 250 million Brazil 200 million Pakistan 182 million Nigeria 174 million Bangladesh 157 million Russian Federation 143 million Japan 127 million Kenya = 31st, 44 million Top 10 in 2100: India 1.6 billion China 1.1 billion Nigeria 914 million USA 462 million Indonesia 315 million United Rep. of Tanzania 276 million Pakistan 263 million Dem. Rep. of the Congo 262 million Ethiopia 243 million Uganda 205 million Kenya = 15th, 160 million.
Posted on: Mon, 08 Jul 2013 05:42:30 +0000