If you thought the market was volatile before, we really got an education from last week to now! The market saw the top once, and the bottom, twice, of almost a 25 USC/LB range! Another major Brazilian Exporter released a revised 15/16 crop report showing they expect production to be around 45 million bags. That is slightly lower than their original revised 47 million bag estimate. Of course, this is much lower than the initial 53+ million bag estimate floated by multiple outlets before the drought started. A fear of dryness in Colombia also initially drove the market irregularly higher but calls for rains the next few days negated that. An uplifting comment by the head of FNC was also well received, saying this would be Colombia’s highest JUL2014 production in 16 years, at over 1.2 million bags. Basically, we have been seeing a lot of chaos, followed by consolidation. Recently, there was MAJOR chaos for about three days before the market settled down, but I wouldn’t count on it for long. Volume has been enormous and it’s tough for the average player to get in. Spec and algorithm guys are in charge at the moment. With funds being the longest they’ve been the whole year, and the market sitting 20 cents from the lows, it seems (to me) like a pretty bearish situation (in the short term). A few new and exciting coffees we got in include a couple of Colombian Excelso estate coffees on the west coast. We also have a hybrid Margogype/caturra Colombian estate coffee. The estates include Finca “La Eternidad”, finca “Santa Monica”, and finca “Josefina”. On the African front, we have an amazing Ethiopian Natural Yirgacheffe that is super wild in the cup, but still keeps those fruity notes of a traditional Yirg. Great coffee! We also have some Kenya AB Top on the water now! Preships were simply amazing, citrus notes and sweetness to no end. Have a great weekend!
Posted on: Fri, 08 Aug 2014 20:24:58 +0000
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