Ill-timed and uncharted, is Shirdon’s announced reconciliation conference on Jubbaland an attempt to repeal Addis Ababa accord? In late last August Jubbaland administration and the federal government of Somalia has signed peace deal in Addis Ababa, the capital city of Ethiopia after an eight-month long dispute between Kismayo and Mogadishu over establishment of regional administration in the southernmost regions of the country, Gedo, Middle and Lower Jubba. Before the peace agreement which was brokered by IGAD and hosted by Ethiopia, the rift between the two sides has escalated to all-out war in late June this year. The fighting erupted in Kismayo after Mogadishu backed allied forces led by Colonel Hiraleh attacked bases of the newly established administration at the time. Bankrolled by the office of the premier as the UN monitoring group testified Hirale’s militia which have been infiltrated by a large number of Alshabad elements were mobilized to create chaos in the city and disrupt the nascent administration. Contrary to their expectations, Hirale’s allied forces were badly defeated and forced out of the city. The government boldly accused AMISOM troops of involvement in what happened and that it sided with the group that won the war. They called for AMISOM troops’ rehat and the deployment of multinational forces in Kismayo as Kenya and Sere Leone forces only were based there. Following months of hostility and dispute the august 28th agreement which is signed in Addis Abab has officially closed that chapter. Ahmed Madobe, the interim leader of Jubbaland administration visited Mogadishu right after the peace deal as a sign of goodwill and restoration of confidence and also as fulfilment of what has been agreed on. Some in the government were unhappy with the agreement. During Ahmed Madobe’s stay in Mogadishu, there have been numerous meetings he has had with the elders of Jubbaland community living in the capital. They were able to negotiate frankly and seal agreement on the completion process of Jubbaland administration. However, there was a gossip that the prime minister and some ministers in his cabinet were unhappy with the terms of Addis Ababa accord. It is said that they believed the treaty have favoured Jubba administration and that there demands were not heeded. There are also other reports that tell the speaker of the parliament was too unhappy with the agreement. It’s understood that one of their biggest demands (the premier and the other ministers) was the integration of the defeated warlord, Hiraleh into this administration, the Jubbaland although he (Hirale) was knowingly collaborating with Alshabab; Since he was forced out of the city he was freely roaming in Alshabab controlled area and in numerous occasions he openly asserted his collaboration with Alshabab and that they had a common “enemy”, the AMISOM. According to many experts Hirale’s alliance with Alshabab isolated him further. Cracks emerge At a farewell party held for the visiting Jubbaland administration delegates in Mogadishu which have been attended by the premier, interior and defence ministers, both the premier and Madobe spoke differently about the implementation of Addis Ababa agreement. The prime minister who spoke first called on a reconciliation conference which would be held the following month in Mogadishu; while the leader of interim Jubba administration stated that he met the elders of Jubbaland community in Mogadishu and that agreement has been reached on a conference which would be held soon in Kismayo as part of Jubba administration completion process. It’s here where cracks started to emerge. The government didn’t elaborate the basis of the conference it called on nor did it consult with Jubbaland about its intensions of holding a conference for Jubbalanders. On the other hand, the interim Jubba administration believes that there’s no need for holding a conference in Mogadishu as the one supposed to be held there as mentioned in Addis Ababa agreement has already been done after they all went to Mogadishu and met with Jubbaland community living there as they argued. According to them they fulfilled the part of the agreement which says a peace conference is to be held in Mogadishu and the only thing that waits implementing is to hold conference in Kismayo. Shirdon’s reasons for Mogadishu conference As he posted on his facebook timeline, Mr. Shirdon’s announced conference is aimed at bringing together those who had previously fought in Kismayo; however as many Somalia affairs analysts believe the fighting that the allied groups led by Hirale waged on Jubbaland administration in late June was just a proxy war fought on behalf of Mogadishu and since the Jubbaland and the federal government has signed an agreement; analysts are questioning the basis upon which the government justified for the conference it called on. Rift is being reported to exist within the government itself over the approach the PM Shirdon and some of his cabinet have taken with respect to Jubbaland and Addis Aababa accord. The presidency on one side and the PM on the other, the row is said to have escalated to a degree that the president is calling for the PM’s resignation. There are rumours that the presidency is trying to bribe the PM out with a pledge of about 2.5 million US dollars should he opt for immediate departure. It was already known the government had bribed some high ranking officials it wanted them to go but it has never been as huge as it’s believed its today. It’s been echoed by many intellectuals and political commentators that the government’s stated aims for holding a conference and the urgency that involved in organizing it seem to be creating suspicion and so there might be hidden agendas beyond the stated intensions. Its stressed by some of these intellectuals that they suspect government is seeking ways to influence the administration so it can reduce Jubbaland state to a provincial one. While others believe the existence of what they call the “trio plot”; according to them Prime Minister Shirdon and his Defence and Interior ministers are pondering on ways to withdraw or repeal Addis Aabab accord. It said that their primary objective is to have Hirale, the defeated warlord, out of the mess he is in; therefore upon the call of such conference he will be entitled to participate. A move which in no way would appeal to Jubbaland administration; since they regard Hirale as terrorist who’s fighting alongside Alshabab militias. The row between Kismayo and Prime Minister’s office over his announced conference seem to be growing bigger day in day out. In a statement released by Jubbaland administration it dismissed the conference as illegal and unwarranted arguing that based on Addis Ababa accord there’s no need for holding conference in Mogadishu. Qore : Abdikadar A. Sahal “ Abdi Khadar Cade " Member of Somalia Intellectuals Association (SIA) Email: carab_416@hotmail
Posted on: Sat, 05 Oct 2013 09:29:53 +0000
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