In just a few hours, Scots go to the polls to decide their fate. Though I perceive myself as having no stake in the outcome, Im nonetheless watching curiously as events unfold. An independent Scotland would likely continue trading tariff-free with its partners in the British Isles and in Europe. It would seek, and likely gain with little effort, a place in the Commonwealth, the EU and NATO. Though there might be some strategic shifting to the south, I see no reason the British MOD wouldnt continue to maintain a significant presence in Scotland. After all, if the MOD maintains a presence in Diego Garcia and Gibraltar, why not on the island of Britain? London needs the bases, and the Scots need the jobs. The Scots would likely constitute their own currency with the ultimate hope of joining the Euro. This process would take time. Negotiation would certainly take place concerning petroleum reserves and the national debt. I see little disadvantage to the Scots here. My sense is that Scotland has little to lose in quitting the UK. For England, by contrast, the loss in global prestige would be significant. Even within the EU there continues to be a movement toward Balkanization. The Catalans will soon hold a referendum to withdraw from Spain, the Basques retain a restless presence in Spain and France as well, and Flanders and Walonia continue to be the odd couple constituting Belgium. The more healthy and vibrant the EU becomes, the greater the incentive for autonomous regions to launch out on their own. Is it possible Wales could someday make a run for the exit? Should the yes vote carry the day, the biggest loser will be David Cameron and the Tories. His clumsy attempt to placate nativist sentiment by renegotiating Britains place in the EU will have been weakened. England needs Scotland more than Scotland needs England. Im tempted to call the vote, but I really dont feel that I can.
Posted on: Thu, 18 Sep 2014 00:07:57 +0000
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