In the last four years, crude oil price has hovered around $100 a barrel. The Nigerian government has been swimming in petrol dollars. Looking at government figures, economists determined that Nigeria’s total crude oil sell came to about $470B in all 5 years of President Jonathan’s administration and $489B for Yaradua, Obasanjo, Abdusalami, Abacha administrations combined. Adjusted for inflation, the numbers are $488.8B for Jonathan and $594B Yaradua, Obasanjo, Abdusalami, Abacha combined. The boom is reflected in the budgets, too. In 2004, Nigeria’s budget was N1.79 trillion. In the last year of Obasanjo’s administration(2007), Nigeria budgeted N2.26 trillion. But the lowest budget in the last 5 years of Jonathan’s administration was N4.2 trillion. The additional money did not just come from the revenue from crude oil. Nigeria’s gas production within this same period has tripled. In his declaration speech, President Jonathan reported that, “in terms of gas supply, we have grown from less than 500 million cubic feet per day, 4 years ago, to about 1.5 billion cubic feet per day currently. Our goal is to attain 4 billion cubic feet per day, over the next 4 years.” These increases in revenue had not translated into a stable economy that could withstand a shock as normal as a change in oil price. In fact, as more money came, Nigeria became more unstable. If there is a worst time for Nigeria’s economy to be in distress, it is now. With the insurgency in the Northern Nigeria, each day causing more havoc, creating more victims, more destructions and more distrust in the economy, Nigeria is potentially coming face to face with that perfect storm it has avoided for decades. If Nigeria collapses in 2015, don’t look anywhere else for the blame; put the blame where it belongs- squarely at the feet of Nigeria. In the last 15 years of democracy and relative peace, Nigeria had a chance to build a strong economic and political base. But like all the other opportunities the nation has had, we squandered it. For so long, Nigeria has been in denial about the unsustainability of the corruption within its system. In time of boom, the nation can endure the waste, but in time of austerity, corruption will eat up what remains of the nation.
Posted on: Mon, 08 Dec 2014 05:37:53 +0000
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