Is Amama a political threat to Museveni? No way! Thinking about this fallout between President Museveni and Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi, I have found myself going back to Daniel arap Moi’s Kenya, and to a man called Charles Njonjo. Njonjo, the wealthy, powerful and influential Kenyan attorney general, was a close political confidant of Moi, who once described him as the “professor of politics.” Some said it was Njonjo who convinced the then frail and ailing President Jomo Kenyatta to appoint Moi, of Kalenjin ethnic group, as the vice president and not a Kikuyu. As attorney general, Njonjo knew that the constitution allowed the vice president to become acting president when the incumbent died. So, Njonjo did not want Kenyatta to be deputized by a powerful Kikuyu. Apparently, he had calculated that he could easily manipulate Moi and eventually dislodge him from the seat. Njonjo didn’t want to make his political ambitions obvious, appearing contented as a kingmaker. Indeed, Moi became president when Kenyatta died. But Njonjo had miscalculated. Moi, feeling insecure about the ‘kikuyu mafia’, dropped Njonjo as attorney general and appointed a commission of inquiry to investigate him over a coup plot in 1982. The once-powerful kingmaker was reduced to a quiet and peripheral player. Njonjo only returned to the limelight in 1998, when Moi appointed him chairman of Kenya Wildlife Services (KWS). This brings us back to Mbabazi, who has struggled to hide his own presidential ambitions. Unlike Njonjo, Mbabazi is no kingmaker! The question, then, to ask in this Museveni-Mbabazi drama, is whether the latter can displace the former in any political race! The first answer to this question would be a question: What is Mbabazi’s political base? In a way this latent squabbling in NRM, which has been acted out by the young ‘Turks’, has defined who wields power in NRM. The myth that Mbabazi is well-established in the NRM and intelligence circles by virtue of being NRM secretary general and former security minister has collapsed. If Mbabazi was well-entrenched in those institutions he would have known about the ‘Nanjing group’ meetings and plot to embarrass him in Kyankwazi. We have also been told that Mbabazi has a network of Resident District Commissioners (RDCs) who have been mobilising support for him. We should all remember that the RDCs represent President Museveni in the various districts. These spineless officials, many previously jobless, owe their loyalty to the appointing authority. They think of their stomachs first and political conviction later. Let us imagine that Mbabazi becomes stubborn and decides to stand as an independent, how many of the ministers and other NRM members would be willing to abandon Museveni for Mbabazi? History has shown that whoever decides to desert Museveni or even is suspected to be deserting him, pays a heavy price for that ‘betrayal’. Therefore, for as long President Museveni is still interested in that office, personally, Mbabazi has no chance to snatch the presidential seat under NRM. It is also common knowledge that a party called NRM only exists on paper. Without President Museveni, it is as good as dead. It has no members but fortune hunters and once the giver of gifts is gone, there will be no NRM. It will die a natural death like Kanu died with the exit of Moi. Neither does Mbabazi stand a chance as an independent. The success of Mbabazi is heavily pegged on Museveni’s willingness to support him. It is only Museveni who can bless and mobilise support on his own. We have examples in this regard. We know how Museveni campaigned for Mbabazi in his own constituency when things turned nasty between him and the wealthy businessman and FDC supporter, Garuga Musinguzi. Mbabazi is not a people’s man. He doesn’t have a lot that endears him to people. He is regarded as distant, arrogant and elitist. He is not as streetwise as Dr Kizza Besigye. Can you imagine Mbabazi allowing villagers to swarm him with hugs as they do with Museveni? Even if Mbabazi had more money than Museveni, he would not beat Museveni. The incumbent has at his disposal all the state machinery and Mbabazi knows what it is capable of doing. Mbabazi also knows he wouldn’t risk quitting NRM to form his own party. That would be suicidal. A Uganda Farmers Party would have more members than his. I would like to believe that there is more than meets the eye in this Museveni-Mbabazi drama. I would like to treat it like a red herring. We are being tactfully diverted from something we are yet to understand.💻
Posted on: Sun, 09 Mar 2014 23:58:00 +0000
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