Issued: 2013 Nov 14 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was moderate. Region 1897 (S21E32, Fkc/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period, an M1 at 13/1520 UTC. This region was also responsible for several low level C-class flares throughout the period. Region 1890 (S12W77, Eao/beta) also produced several C-class flares as it approached the western limb. Region 1899 (N06E42, Dki/beta) showed significant growth in overall areal coverage as well as its leader spots. Region 1893 (S13W04, Dsi/beta) also exhibited slight growth in area as well as its leader spot, but remained fairly inactive. All other regions on the visible disk were unremarkable. While there were three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in Lasco imagery, none were determined to be Earth directed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate (R1-R2) flares for the next three days (14-16 Nov) along with a slight chance for a strong (R3) flare during 14-15 Nov as Regions 1890 and 1897 remain large, complex, and capable of further activity, and Region 1899 continues to grow in area and magnetic complexity. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit have returned to background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the period (14-16 Nov). A chance exists for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels for the next two days (14-15 Nov) as Region 1890 continues its westward progression towards the limb. Greater than 10 MeV proton flux values are forecast to be at background levels on day three (16 Nov). Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft reflected ambient background solar wind conditions. Wind speeds averaged in the mid 300 km/s range through the period. IMF Bt fluctuated between 4 nT and 0 nT and the Bz component of the IMF ranged from -2 nT to +3 nT throughout most of the period. Phi angle remained mostly in a positive (away) orientation throughout the day with a few brief sector transitions occurring intermittently. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to display ambient background conditions for the next three days (14-16 Nov). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Mostly quiet levels are expected for the next three days (14-16 Nov).
Posted on: Thu, 14 Nov 2013 13:47:34 +0000
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